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Wednesday 15 January 2014

NFL Conference Finals Are The Deserved Match Ups

by Dugald Skene

Never mind that the NFL conference final line ups are the ones we wanted to see, they are the match ups that all four teams deserve.

It's been many a year since the top 2 seeds from each conference have made it to their respective finals in the same year. Lately, there has always been an outsider, a wildcard team that has got hot in the post season.  Look no further than the Giants and the Ravens in the last two years as prime examples, both getting in through the back door to claim the Superbowl crown.

The divisional round didn't throw up any real surprises, and nothing like the exciting action of wildcard weekend (unless you're a fan of dominant defences slugging it out), but the cream has risen to the top, and the two match ups this weekend are generating many a headline.

The most obvious one is the difference in styles - the old versus the new, the young guns of the NFC taking on the stalwarts of the AFC.  The immediate advantage is that we will end up with a representative of each in the Superbowl and it doesn't really matter at this stage who progresses to the biggest stage - any combination of Seattle and the 49ers against the Broncos or Patriots is a mouth watering prospect.

With such even matched games, it's anyone's guess who will be in New York in February, but it won't stop me trying.

San Francisco at Seattle has everything - dominant defences, strong running games and two young quarterbacks that have the ability to carry their team when needed.

Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers has undoubtedly got the best arsenal at his disposal.  The triumphant return of Michael Crabtree at WR, together with veteran Anquan Boldin and TE Vernon Davis, means the 49ers have all their strongest options available to them.  The outstanding Seahawks secondary will have their hands full, but if there's any defence that can contain the 49ers wide men, it's the likes of Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and co.  Each had an outstanding game against the Saints this past weekend, confining Drew Brees to a career low 34 throwing yards in the first half of that game.  More of the same will be needed this time.

This will be the 3rd time the 49ers and Seahawks have
met this season

The Kaepernick/Wilson battle is generating a lot of intrigue.  There's no doubt that Kaepernick has go hotter as this postseason has gone on, not least because of the return to fitness of Crabtree, and Wilson's form during the last 5-6 weeks hasn't been great.  Wilson's options are also limited.  Percy Harvin is a doubt after being concussed at least once by the Saints (a great and legal hit too, by the way), and Golden Tate was a shell of himself after taking an early hit in the 1st quarter on Sunday.  Doug Baldwin isn't a first choice WR and so much of Seattle's game plan will be to run the ball through Marshawn Lynch - Beast Mode. 

I'm not convinced a one-dimensional running game is going to cut it against that front 7 of San Francisco who have been epic against the run of late.  Even with the 12th man behind them, Seattle could struggle in this one.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6

If I'm truly honest about it, I don't care so much about the AFC conference game.  It's certainly one for the old timers, the fans of the pocket passer and the old school general type quarterback.  Both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have been here before - Manning going for his 3rd Superbowl appearance (and second win), Brady his 6th (and 4th win). 

Both men are under pressure for different reasons.  Talk in the NFL has been dominated by the idea of legacy and what it means for Manning to win or not win a second ring. There is no doubt he has been one of the best regular season QB's in the history of the game, but the regular season wins you nothing. His postseason record is poor  for a guy with his numbers.  Taking nothing away from his win with the Colts, with the Broncos he has the back up that might see him fulfil the undoubted potential of the last decade.  With WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and TE Julius Thomas, he has big men to throw at, as well as the small man with the big game aptitude, slot receiver Wes Welker.

This will be the 4th postseason game between Brady & Manning
 - Brady leads 2-1

Brady, on the other hand, hasn't won a Superbowl for 9 years, despite making it to the big one twice since the win in 2004.  A win this year could possible cement him as the best ever - the third quarterback to win 4 rings but easily the most consistent over the longest period.  This will be the Patriots' 3rd consecutive AFC conference game, and Brady and coach Belichik have won 11 divisional titles together

I see the Patriots going to Denver and playing hard ball.  If this past weekend has shown us anything, it's that the Patriots can evolve quickly, and lately their running game has come to the fore with LeGarette Blount - 8 TD's and almost 400 yards in his past 3 games. 

For Denver to win this, they need to get off to a strong start.  The longer the game goes on and Denver find themselves in a position where they need to make big offensive plays to win, the pressure might get just too much, and the Mile High crowd might not help their team as much as we might think.  When it comes to the clutch, I'd rather have Brady than Manning on my side.  That said, if the Broncos defence plays like they did for 3 quarters against the Chargers on Sunday, they're in with a very good start.

Pick:  Denver Broncos by 3

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