by Dugald Skene
It's official, Scottish rugby is in dire staights.
This isn't a knee jerk reaction to the latest defeat at home to Tonga, although this is just the final chapter to what has been one of the most miserable years in Scottish rugby, culminating in the resignation of head coach Andy Robinson on Sunday. Instead, it is the natural conclusion to an evolution of the game in this country that has been forming since the dawn of professionalism almost 20 years ago.
Coach Andy Robinson has had enough
The 15-21 loss to the South Sea islanders at Pittodrie marked Scotland's 8th defeat of the year from 11 games. The other 3 games were all won on foreign soil.
If Scottish fans thought their team had any right to find themselves in the top 8 of the IRB rankings, the team have proved that by playing all but one (Argentina) of the other teams in the top 12 in 2012, they are exactly where they deserve to be in the ranking system right now, and that is solidly as a third tier nation.
To have any aspirations to be in the top 8, it requires to beat the occasional team multiple places ahead of you, and to consistently beat those immediately around you. Scotland have lost 2 of the 4 teams ranked below them this year (according to the rankings at the time those games were played), against Tonga and Italy. The win in tricky conditions in Australia and the subsequent victories against Fiji and Samoa represented nothing but a false dawn, morale boosters at a time when much of the focus in world rugby wasn't on them. When it mattered, at home and under the spotlight this autumn, Scotland had very little to show.
To find themselves in the third pool (just - Scotland have slipped to 12th in the world rankings after Saturday's defeat, below Italy and Tonga) for next months World Cup draw for 2015 should come as no surprise. Long gone are the days of the exclusive club of the top 8 including the top 3 southern hemisphere teams and the 5 nations. Rugby is far more of a global game and the likes of Argentina, Italy and Samoa have elbowed their way in with varying degrees of success over the last 15 years.
The problems that face Scotland are deep rooted. If you think about it, when was the last time Scotland fielded a world class team? In fact, when did Scotland last field a team with at least 4 or 5 world class players?
In my view, and looking at recent Lions tour parties, certainly not in the last 15 years.
Scotland have proved themselves to be the team that have reacted slowest to the game turning professional, and it has manifested itself in the World Cup qualifying positions for both 2011 and 2015. So why has this happened, and how can it be changed?
Like most things in the world of professional sport, it comes down to money. Scotland simply have never invested enough in the right things at the right times.
You got the impression that Andy Robinson had resigned not so much from the team, or even his role, but from the inherent problems deeper within the SRU system. Following the defeat to Tonga, the SRU would not have fired him, of that I'm sure, so I see it slightly as a blessing that Robinson has left and by doing so, combined with the poor performances, has exposed the problems currently prevalent within the Scottish game. The lack of expenditure at grass roots and at all levels of the game is right at the top of the list.
It's important to acknowledge, however, that Robinson is not a martyr in all this. The facts and results speak for themselves and he has to be held as accountable as the players that go out to employ his strategies and tactics. His win rate in competitive games is a measly 21% (4 from 19), which is completely unaccaptable any way you look at it, not least for the fans.
As to what happens now, there are so many questions. The first, and perhaps most hotly discussed is who is going to be the next head coach?
One thing is for sure, the SRU won't be paying for a big name and are far more likely to recruit from within. With that in mind, my money is on Sean Lineen to take the reins on at least an interim basis, perhaps until the end of the upcoming 6 Nations tournament.
Lineen's current role as 'Head of Player Aquisition' is one that could only be invented by the SRU. It flies in the face of investing in youth development in this country by instead looking for 'ready-made' talent from elsewhere around the world. After all, Scotland have a history of finding Antipodean talent in particular with Scottish roots available to play for Scotland in the past 20 years.
What Lineen has proved during his time at Glasgow is that he is a coach that instills a strong work ethic and gets the best out of his players. He's not afraid to blood new players and has a great track record of introducing and nurturing young talent. It could be argued that he is more valuable in his other role as Under 20 coach, but looking at the options with some sort of Scottish connection, he certainly has the best CV for the post.
What we do know is that Scotland have 3 years to turn this around ahead of the next World Cup. One thing in the team's favour is the strength of it's younger talent, the likes of Richie Gray, David Denton, Matt Scott and Henry Pyrgos amongst others. They have an opportunity to form the backbone of a new future for the team, and Lineen has the credentials to allow that to happen.
The Scots are resigned to facing two teams currently ranked ahead of them in the World Cup, but so much can change in the space of the next 3 years. Think back to 2008 when Argentina were a top 4 side, selected in Scotland's group alongside Pool 2 qualifiers England, only for Scotland to tour Argentina in 2010 and record a 2-0 series win. Scotland should have beaten them again in the World Cup in New Zealand but it wasn't to be. In short (and to put a positive spin on it), rankings now aren't as relevant as performances then.
We shouldn't be preoccupied with who we might face that far down the line, instead we should concentrate on the here and now, get a strength and depth of squad established, playing consistently together and recording consistently positive results. Under the right tutelage, Scotland can and should bounce back from this new low.
I'm not suggesting for one minute that we will be contesting for a top 4 or 5 place, but it is reasonable to expect to be consistently in the 6-9 bracket, especially given the pool of players we have relative to some of those nations ahead of us.
The Andy Robinson chapter has ended with a hugely disappointing full stop. As good as we are in Scotland to wallow in our sporting failures, it is imperative to look ahead. Rugby won't wait for us, we have a lot of chasing to do.
