The 6 week long extravaganza that is the RBS 6 Nations officially launches today, and each nation will be heading in all with optimistic expectations.
After a world cup that saw some home nations excel and others ultimately leave disappointed, every team will be looking to improve during the 6 Nations.
I'll state now that I don't think there will be a Grand Slam winner this year. As the gaps in class between the 6 teams get smaller, everyone has the ability to take points from each other, this year more than ever.
Here's my rundown on each country, their key issues, expectations and players and what it'll take for each to take home the title.
England
England fans surely can't wait for the tournament to start. It'll be the first opportunity to see their team since the disappointing RWC campaign in New Zealand, to hopefully wipe the slate clean and of course to see if they can defend their 6 Nations title.
A new era has brought in a new interim coach with Stuart Lancaster calling the shots. His elite squad includes 9 uncapped players who are all based in England with the exception of Ben Morgan (Scarlets) and who have all performed well for their respective clubs.
Stand out additions include Owen Farrell who has been superb at Saracens. Playing at 12 lately with the resurgence of Charlie Hodgson at 10, Farrell looks a player well beyond his 20 years, exciting and with a good kicking boot. A useful kicking option at inside centre, he provides a Mike-Catt-style midfield option and of all the new faces, will most likely find a starting berth in February, or at least a place in the 22.
Owen Farrell
Harlequins prop Joe Marler brings his significant bulk and skill (and ridiculous haircut) into the fray. At 21, he again looks every bit an established player, though he admits he has lots yet to learn. With a secure berth in the Quins front row, he has managed to progress significantly and consistently through the season and deserves his squad place.
It's hard to assess the prospects of a largely new squad and new coach. Personally, I can only hope that the style of rugby that Lancaster will instill into his team will be an improvement on Martin Johnson's ethos, so it will be intriguing to guage England's efforts when they start their defence at Murrayfield. With that trip and a visit to Paris, I just feel they might struggle a little in this time of transition.
Key players for England will be the same ones they pinned their hopes on during the world cup but who never really shone; the likes of Foden, Ashton, Lawes and Hartley.
Prediction: Fourth
France
The French look to be going into the tournament as favourites following a turbulent but reasonably successful RWC in New Zealand, reaching the final and losing by only 1 point to the hosts (making it 3 appearances and 3 losses in RWC finals).
New coach Phillipe Saint-Andre looks to have a steadier head on him than his predecessor Marc Lievremont who tinkered constantly with his selections. Saint-Andre has stuck to the majority of those who performed at the RWC and
added a couple of new faces, most notably the exciting young Clermont centre Wesley Fofana.
France didn't part with many of their players through retirement after the RWC, and the team will be very similar to the one that took to the field against New Zealand. Given that consistency and that they have 3 home games it is hard to see them doing anything other than triumph, although maybe not with a Grand Slam (thinking specifically of their trips to Wales and Scotland).
Morgan Parra
The key player for me is scrum half Morgan Parra. Still only 22, the Clermont nuumber 9 has proved to be the best in his position in the world at the moment. He packs every skill required of his demanding role with the added responsibility of goal kicking. He calls the shots, marshalls his forwards and distributes always when required, reading the game so comprehensively. When Clermont played Leicester in the Heineken Cup earlier this season, he showed England's Ben Youngs exactly how it should be done, and in his own back yard.
Prediction: First
Ireland
After a world cup that promised so much, particularly after topping their group with the win over Australia, the Irish were ultimately left disappointed after their quarter-final loss to the Welsh in New Zealand.
Declan Kidney has named a small squad that excludes the injured talisman and captain Brian O'Driscoll through injury. Munsterman Paul O'Connell will lead the team in BO'D's absence. Other notable exclusions include Luke Fitzgerald, once seen as the longterm replacement for O'Driscoll. The news that he has not even been selected for the Irish 'A' Wolfhounds team shows everyone that he has a lot of work to do to earn a place in Kidney's thoughts again.
Paul O'Connell
Domestically, the Irish are doing extremely well. 2011/12 is the first season in the Heineken Cup that 3 Irish teams have made the quarter-finals with Ulster joining the perennial winners Leinster and Munster. All 3 teams provide the vast majority of the Irish squad and given the way those clubs are playing at the moment, it would take a strong will to bet against the Irish this time around.
Ireland host Scotland, Wales and Italy where they will be fully expected to win all 3. The trips to Twickenham and the Stade de France will certainly prove to be trickier, but recent history shows that the Irish have had their fair share of results at those stadiums.
Prediction: Second
Italy
The Italians always had it to do when placed in a RWC group with Ireland and Australia. They held their own for the first half against the Aussies but got decimated in the first half by Ireland.
There seems to be no question that the overall quality of the Italians has increased following the introduction of Benetton Treviso and Aironi into the RaboDirect Pro12 league. With much of the Italian squad based either in these two teams or in the French Top 14, nearly every player is now exposed to top level European rugby on a consistent basis.
Italy recorded their most famous victory of the 2011 tournament over the French in Rome, and it's the French they face first up, this time in Paris. It's difficult to see any kind of upset, that really would be the biggest result in the history of the 6 Nations following the intorduction of the Italians in 2000.
Their key man, as it seems to be every year, is number 8 Sergio Parisse. With the sort of ability that would see him claim a place in
any international team setup, Parisse carries much of the responsibility of his team and country's expectations. And yet he either seems to thrive on it or manages to block it out as he is the most consistent performer when he takes to the field.
Sergio Parisse
Italy will be targeting home wins against England and Scotland in the final weekend. In the past, they have pushed the English close at least once and following their result against the French last time out, they'll believe they can do it again. On the basis that Scotland will pick up a couple of results prior to the game with Italy, I see the Italians once again struggling at the bottom of the table, but they will almost certainly provide a shock result somewhere.
Prediction: Sixth
Scotland
It's fair to say that Scottish rugby is on something of a high at the moment. Edinburgh's success in topping their Heineken Cup group and earning themselves a home quarter-final against 4 time winners Toulouse is testament to Michael Bradley and the style of rugby they promote. Glasgow meanwhile are still harbouring ambitions of grabbing a league play-off place for the second time in 4 seasons as their consistency of success in the RaboDirect Pro12 league continues.
Once again, it these teams that provide the bulk of Andy Robinson's squad members. He has selected hooker Ross Ford to lead out the country during the tournament after his first choice for captain Kelly Brown was injured last weekend playing for Saracens at Treviso and will be out for at least 8 weeks. Ford will win his 54th cap against England on February 4th.
Ross Ford
Injuries are a key worry for Scotalnd in the final fortnight leading up to the first weekend, most notably to Robinson's first choice fly-half Ruaridh Jackson (thigh), former captain Al Kellock (respiratory infection) and props Alasdair Dickinson (shoulder) and Ed Kalman (calf). The prop positions particularly are a worry as Moray Low is already ruled out and Euan Murray chooses not to play on Sundays, ruling him out of 2 of the 5 games.
Scotland's successes in the tournament have traditionally come in the 'even' years when they host England and France and travel to Ireland, Wales and Italy. Should they get off to a great start against England, and away in Cardiff against the Welsh, who knows what could happen. Having a two week gap before and after the French game could also prove to be beneficial.
Scotland's shortcomings, highlighted particuarly at the recent world cup in New Zealand, include the inability to capitalise on the possession and territroy they make. Scoring tries has been a real struggle in previous seasons, and it's hard to see where they will come from this time around. With no notable strike players added to the core group from the World Cup (it should be noted that game changing Edinburgh winger Tim Visser qualifies for Scotland this June, a little late for this tournament), Scotland will again be relying on the tactical nouse of either Dan Parks, the inexperienced Duncan Weir and Jackson when he returns.
The burden of scoring tries in the backs will fall to the household names of Sean Lamont, Joe Ansbro, Max Evans and Nick de Luca.
I believe that Scotland have a chance of achieving a top 3 place this year, provided they can secure the crucial home victories against England and France, which they are well capable of doing. England go to Murrayfield on February 4th having not won there since 2004 (and only twice since 1998) and Scotland will want it to stay that way.
Prediction: Third
Wales
There is perhaps greater expectation than ever on the Welsh team following their heroics at the world cup which some them knocked out at the semi final by the French, and by a single point. Many Welsh fans will still be debating the red card given to inspirational young captain Sam Warburton that day, but there is no point dwelling on the past. The 6 Nations provides an opportunity to cement the form they showed during the world cup and even exact some revenge against the French.
Warren Gatland has selected a squad that has a healthy mix of experience and new talent, the possible excpetion being the inclusion of Gavin Henson who has arguably only bagged a place due to first choice number 12 Jamie Roberts being out injured. As
discussed previously in The Skene Skrum, Wales have more than enough options to cover for Roberts without Henson.
Wales are one of the hardest teams to predict for tournaments. Who would have thought after the 2007 RWC where they crashed out of their group, they would come back to claim a Grand Slam in 2008? That came 3 years after the Grand Slam that seemed to come out of nowhere. Having had a good world cup this time around, who's to say that the Welsh won't flunk and be competing for the wooden spoon this year?
George North
The key player for me is George North. The natural try scoring successor to Shane Williams, North enters the tournament after a very impressive world cup. Along with fellow winger Leigh Halfpenny, the pair will be looked upon to bag a few tries this time round.
Wales have three home games this year, but travel to Dublin and Twickenham. The home fixture with Scotland threw up a thriller two years ago and will no doubt do so again. Wales have proved by winning the Grand Slams in '05 and '08 that they can beat all teams home and away, but can they do it this time? I have a sneaky feeling they may struggle this year with the likes of Jamie Roberts, Alun Wyn-Jones and Luke Charteris out and Gethin Jenkins an injury doubt.
Prediction: Fifth
