Wales v Scotland Preview

Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Date: Sunday, 12 February
Kick-off: 1500 GMT

What a week it has been in Scottish Rugby.  Summed up in a word, you could do worse than 'regrettable'.

Last weekend's game saw Scotland fail to take their chances, losing to an English side that they should have beaten.  Days later, Dan Parks announced his immediate retirement and the fallout has seen many a friend and colleague bestow generous plaudits, as well as the longtime critics congratulate a man with their tails between their legs upon realising the fact that Parks gave much more than he ever took.

That was the last few days.  Scotland now have only a few days to prepare for their clash in Cardiff in what has traditionally been an unpredictable and entertaining fixture with the Welsh.

The memory of 2010 will still be very vivid in many minds, Scottish and Welsh for the way that cam started with Chris Paterson going off after minutes of his 100th cap for Scotland, to Thom Evans being stretchered off after fracturing his spine in a collision with Lee Byrne to the final 7 minutes where Scotland threw it all away, conceding 17 points and the game in one of the most pulsating climaxes to a 6 Nations game in living memory.

Can we expect the same again?  Probably not, but who am I to say. 

Scotland have made only two changes to their starting 15, both forced with Laidlaw coming in for Parks and Geoff Cross stepping in for the absent Euan Murray.  Many thought that the midfield would be re-jigged following a lack of penetration and basic handling mistakes on Saturday, but Robinson has stuck to his guns and believes his choice then is still the right one to take on a formidable Welsh backline.

Aside from Murray's withdrawal (due to his personal beliefs, he doesn't play on Sundays), it is good to see some consistency in the pack selection.  All three members of the back row, Rennie, Strokosch and Calcutta Cup man of the match David Denton looked fresh and mobile and should match their Welsh counterparts toe-to-toe.

As discussed previously in this blog in reaction to the Calcutta Cup clash, the introdution of Laidlaw for his first start for Scotland should lead to some better distribution through the hands and a bit more penetration from the likes of Sean Lamont.  He doesn't have the tactical kicking prowess of Dan Parks, something that Scotland have used well away from Murrayfield in the past, but Laidlaw has the ability to help Scotland play more adventurously and maybe even lead to some tries.

David Denton will look to add to his

excellent display against the English

The Welsh will be in fine spirits following their late comeback victory over the Irish at the Aviva.  With that away win and 3 home games this year, they are all of a sudden turning into tournament favourites in many eyes.

The outstanding feature of their win on Sunday was the variety and the combination of creativity and brute power in the backline, typified by George North who bowled over Gordon D'Arcy as if he wasn't there only to offload out the back door to Jonathan Davies who took his second try of the game.

There will be some interesting match-ups in Cardiff, some fair, some not so fair.  Lee Jones will have his hands very full in his second cap with George North to cover.  Sean Lamont and Jamie Roberts are specifically picked to batter holes in the defence and make yards and it'll be fascinating to see David Denton and Toby Faletau scrapping it out at the breakdown.

As I have mentioned before, only the very optimistic will see the Scots pick up a win on Sunday, but given the way they lost against England, I think most Scots fans will be looking for some execution and a ruthless streak in their play that will hopefully reap some points.

It should be a great match with all the fireworks and passion that is so associated with both countries.  I can't wait.

Wales:

15. L Halfpenny, 14. A Cuthbert, 13. J Davies, 12. J Roberts, 11. G North, 10. R Priestland , 9. M Phillips, 1. G Jenkins, 2. H Bennett, 3. A Jones, 4. R Jones, 5. I Evans, 6. D Lydiate, 7. S Warburton, 8. T Faletau

Bench: 16. K Owens, 17. P James, 18. L Reed, 19. A Powell, 20. L Williams, 21. J Hook, 22. S Williams

Scotland:

15. R Lamont, 14. L Jones, 13. N De Luca, 12. S Lamont, 11. M Evans, 10. G Laidlaw, 9. C Cusiter, 1. A Jacobsen, 2. R Ford (c), 3. G Cross, 4. R Gray, 5. J Hamilton, 6. A Strokosch, 7. R Rennie, 8. D Denton

Bench: 16. S Lawson, 17. E Kalman, 18. A Kellock, 19. J Barclay, 20. M Blair, 21. D Weir, 22. S Hogg

France vs Ireland Preview

Perhaps the most intriguing game of this weekends RBS 6 Nations will be when France host Ireland on Saturday.  Both teams have something to prove following the first round of results.

As seems to be the way this year, each team selection seems to be that bit more based on current form rather than old favourites, perhaps symptomatic of squad evolution following World Cups.  The French are no exception as they produced a solid enough display against the Italians to see out a 30-12 victory at the Stade de France.  The new look backline with the introduction of Wesley Fofana at centre and the return of the in form Julien Malzieu on the wing looked to be a settled unit which certainly took their chances when they presented themselves.

However, I wouldn't say that the French were at their brilliant best.  If anything over the last few years, particularly under Marc Lievremont, the French became less synonomous with the famous flair and more with how they can grind out results, and that's when they win.  The French lost on more occasions than they'd like to remember under Lievremont, including 3 games at the 2011 RWC and a trouncing at home to Australia.  Saturday's victory was much along the same lines - flashes of brilliance but still very much a workmanlike overall performance. 

Saint-Andre won't mind.  He was a player who thrived on capitalising on the great setup play created by having a hard working and heavy pack, much like the one he controls now.  I dare say that the French fans will be looking for a slight return to the days of free flowing rugby that saw their team win numerous Grand Slams early on in the 6 Nations.

Saint-Andre has tinkered slightly, most notably by bringing in the bigger Imanol Harinordiquy for Julien Bonnaire at openside, and starting with Morgan Parra in place of the injured Dmitri Yachvili (back).

Keith Earls will start for Ireland after missing

out against Wales for personal reasons

Saturday sees the visit of the Irish who will be hurting after losing at home to the Welsh, after being up by a score and a man with 10 minutes left in the game.  Winning in Dublin isn't easy, and it's a place the Irish hate to lose, so they will have everything to prove against the French on their own patch.

Perhaps the pressure will be off the Irish a little, as it is for any team playing away from home.  The Stade de France is an intimidating atmosphere when the French have the wind at their backs, but equally baron when the opposition get the upper hand.  Over the years, it has proved to be as much of a distraction to the French when they are losing than it is for the visitors when they are.

I think this will be as tight a game as the Welsh game was for the Irish, and I can't see who will win it.  The French haven't done enough in the first round to convince me that they can fulfil my prediction of winning the tournamnet.  Then again, it was Saint-Andre's first game at the helm, and a win is a win.  The Irish will be supremely motivated to put Sunday's result behind them and probably pleased that they only have 6 days to get out there and show their fans what they are all about.

Let's remember, at times, the Irish played very well against Wales and have the ability to beat anyone on their day.

It should be a cracking match, and I'm looking forward to it with relish.

France:

15. M Medard, 14. V Clerc, 13. A Rougerie, 12. W Fofana, 11. J Malzieu, 10. F Trinh-Duc, 9. M Parra, 1. JB Poux, 2. D Szarzewski, 3. N Mas, 4. P Pape, 5. Y Maestri, 6. T Dusautoir (c), 7. I Harinordoquy, 8. L Picamoles

Bench: 16. W Servat, 17. V Debaty, 18. L Nallet, 19. J Bonnaire, 20. J Dupuy, 21. L Beauxis, 22. M Mermoz.

Ireland:

15. R Kearney, 14. T Bowe, 13. K Earls, 12. G D’Arcy, 11. A Trimble, 10. J Sexton, 9. C Murray, 1. C Healy, 2. R Best, 3. M Ross, 4. D O’Callaghan, 5. P O’Connell (c), 6. S Ferris, 7. S O’Brien, 8. J Heaslip

Bench: 16. S Cronin, 17. T Court, 18. D Ryan, 19. P O’Mahony, 20. E Reddan, 21. R O’Gara, 22. F McFadden

Scotland Team For Wales Clash

Following a turbulent few days for Scottish Rugby, starting with the Calcutta Cup loss to England at Murrayfield and seeing the announcement yesterday of Dan Parks' retirement, Andy Robinson has announced the team he sees can get the Scots back on track and to winning ways.

Laidlaw gets his first start by filling the vacant 10 spot left by Parks and partners Chris Cusiter at scrum half in the pivotal roles.

The full team:

15. R Lamont
14. Jones
13. De Luca
12. S Lamont
11. Evans
10. Laidlaw
9. Cusiter
1. Jacobsen
2. Ford (c)
3. Cross
4. Gray
5. Hamilton
6. Strokosch
7. Rennie
8. Denton

Bench: S Lawson, Kalman, Kellock, Barclay, Blair, Weir & Hogg

Glasgow's Sturat Hogg earns a place on the bench and

could get his debut for Scotland

I suspect there isn't as much change here to what many predicted.  Many thought (myself included) that Nick de Luca may have been dropped, but he holds on to his centre spot with Sean Lamont.

Ross Rennie and David Denton keep there places in the back row after very good performances against the English and Saturday's debutant Lee Jones holds on to his place on the right wing.

The big changes are on the bench where superb performances for Duncan Weir, Ed Kalman and Stuart Hogg in last weeks 35-0 victory over the Saxons for Scotland A have earnt them potential debuts against Wales.

With both Lamonts and Evans able to play in the centre or on the wing, there is plenty of scope for re-jigging the team by introducing Stuart Hogg who can play centre or full-back.

Dan Parks Retires From International Rugby

This afternoon, Dan Parks announced his retirement from international rugby. 

The Australian born Scot won 67 caps for Scotland, scoring 266 points including 17 drop goals.  He also notched up countless bottles of champagne for man of the match performances, including 5 in 7 games in 2010 where he single handedly resurrected Scotland's 6 Nations campaign (capping it off with a fantastic penalty kick to beat Ireland at Croke Park) and in his penultimate match against England in the 2011 RWC.

In a statement issued through www.scotlandrugbyteam.org, he said “I was thinking about it but the first game of the Six Nations was against England, the auld enemy, Jacko (Ruaridh Jackson) was injured and being able to play against England was huge for me as there was a sense of unfinished business.

“On reflection after the game, after talking it over with my family, girlfriend and close friends I’ve come to the decision that now is the right time to retire from the international game.

“There are some really talented guys coming through – Jacko (Ruaridh Jackson), Greig (Laidlaw) and Duncan (Weir) – and although I’m sad to be finishing my international career I have some fantastic memories of playing for Scotland and what that has meant to me.

“I’ve no regrets at what has been an amazing career for me. I’ve got my favourite moments for Scotland – uppermost being the 2007 Rugby World Cup.

“That was my first World Cup, something that as a youngster you would always aspire to play in, and it was just such a happy, exciting, positive time. It was also where I met my girl-friend, Laetitia.

“Other memorable moments have been the two wins against England at home (2006 and 2008), the win against South Africa here at Murrayfield, the two wins in Argentina in 2010 and one in 2008 and the Ireland game in 2010 which was a great occasion.

“I’ve made some incredible friends here in Scotland and in the Scotland team and a lot of those friendships were forged in Glasgow.

“I also want to thank the loyal fans of the Scotland team. It’s been a rocky road for me at times but at the end I’ve always given 100 per cent to play at my best and succeed for Scotland.

“This is not the end of me as a rugby player. My international career is over but I want to keep playing club rugby. I always enjoyed my time in Glasgow. It’s one of great cities I’ve visited, so who knows what will happen in the future.”

Dan Parks playing his final game for Scotland

Despite the love/hate relationship many Scotland fans have had with Parks over the years, there is no doubt he has proved and provided so much for his adoptive nation, a career both he and we should be very proud of.

Messages of support have been flooding in over the social networks for  a true servant to Scottish Rugby, and one that will not be forgotten.

It is a shame that his career has ended so abruptly, but as he states above, he wanted to be available for the Scottish cause and that epitomises his attitude to both rugby and playing for Scotland. 

As a Glasgow Warriors fan, I was a big fan of his during his time at the club.  As the first player to score over 1,000 points in the league, he demonstrated his reliability and his consistency that earnt him his 67 Scotland caps.

I stated on this blog yesterday that I thought he may well have played his last game for Scotland, but I honestly didn't see it happening this way.  However, I agree with his own thoughts that the natural time to step aside to new blood had come.

Congratulations on a fine career.  His contribution will not be forgotten.

Rank Rotten

The latest revised world rankings were released by the IRB yesterday and it makes grim reading for Scotland.

Following the weekends 6-13 loss in the Calcutta Cup at Murrayfield, the Scots are now placed 11th, behind Tonga and Samoa.

What is significant about this is the impact rankings have this year on the pool selection for the 2015 Rugby World Cup. Those pools will be based on the rankings as they stand at the end of this years Autumn Internationals. Unless Scotland can get back into the top 8 in the world, they will again face being in the third pot and facing a team in the top 4 and a second team placed 5th to 8th.

It's beyond my comprehension as to why the draw for the RWC is made so early. Scotland fans will be familiar with the frustration after the last World Cup where their team were drawn with England (pool 2) and Argentina (pool 1). The Scots then won a test series in Argentina, promoting them to 7th in the world.

That aside, the rules are what they are, and so it leaves Scotland 10 matches between now and the end of November to make things right. The fixtures aren't easy, starting with an in form Wales in Cardiff on Sunday:

Wales (A), France (H), Ireland (A), Italy (A), Australia (A), Fiji (A), Samoa (A), New Zealand (H), South Africa (H) and Tonga (H).

The odds are stacked against Scotland. They need to aim for at least 3 wins in the remaining 6 Nations, at least 2 in the summer tour and 2 in the autumn.

A bonus for Scotland before the summer tour will be the arrival of Scott Johnson into the coaching setup (assuming we still have a head coach in June) and the availability of Dutch born Tim Visser for Scotland selection having gained national citizenship. Visser is the highest try scorer in the RaboDirect Pro12 league, and could be the perfect tonic for the try shy Scots.

Can Tim Visser help to turn

Scotland's fortunes?

Whatever happens, Scotland have left an awful lot to do to remedy the situation they find themselves in - their worst world ranking position since they were introduced.

Scotland 6-13 England

It was generally recognised before a ball was even kicked this weekend that Scotland had more than enough in their team to dispatch England on their home turf.  The Scot’s went in as favourites, not a tag that sits well with Scotland fans, particularly in a Calcutta Cup game. 

There were only two things that could have happened to see the expected result reversed.  Firstly, England would play better than anyone realistically expected to outplay and even outmuscle the Scots.  The second scenario, and something that happens all too often in the eyes of Scotland fans: Scotland shoot themselves in the foot and contribute to their own downfall.

The first option didn’t happen.  England looked toothless at times and struggled against the phase play that the Scot’s strung together.  That said, they were never that uncomfortable either as the Scot’s huffed and puffed a lot, but never made significant yardage.

Following the 13-6 result, some painful truths became very apparent, if they hadn’t already before. 1 – Scotland struggle to break the gain line consistently and when they do, they can rarely capitalise on the territorial gain.  2 – Scotland have a near complete inability to score tries in internationals.  The situation is now at a point where head coach Andy Robinson has been making noises about walking away if there isn’t clear improvement.
Let’s look at the evidence. 

I’ll start by saying that hindsight is a wonderful thing, but even before his performance on Saturday, it was clear to many that the inclusion of the relatively ageing Dan Parks in the team following less than convincing displays in the World Cup was a backwards move.  Aside from the mistake that led to the English try (not the charged down kick so much, but the decision to run the ball from the 22 in the first place), Parks sits so incredibly deep when he plays that it makes it very hard even for the big men like Sean Lamont to make ground from first phase ball.  Compare that to Friday’s performance by Duncan Weir for Scotland A who played much flatter and could expose gaps in the defence quicker, ultimately leading to a great try in that game.  The introduction of Laidlaw and Blair in the second half on Saturday improved the Scots considerably.  Blair’s delivery was crisp and Laidlaw was flat and unafraid to either take on a defender himself or play through the hands.  The pair brought revived endeavour and almost a second half comeback.

Has Dan Parks played his last game for Scotland?

Scotland’s best breaks (Rennie and Gray) came with much flatter ball, with Gray in particular receiving the ball almost on the gain line with momentum, allowing him to break the tackle and make the yards.  I dare say that I think Dan Parks may well have played his last test match for Scotland.  Following his individual performance, the team result and the talent that he has competing for the 10 jersey, I just can’t see him starting again.

So what about the tries, or lack of them?

It could be argued that Scotland were unlucky not to score at least one on Saturday.  The right decision was made by the video ref in my opinion, I think it would have been a soft try.  There was a lot of talk from the studio pundits about the question that was asked by the referee to the video referee.  “Is it a try, yes or no?” was what he asked.  Some of the experts thought he should have asked “Is there any reason why I cannot award the try?”.  I think this particular point is a little ridiculous.  The referee was behind the play, looking at Laidlaw’s backside when the ball was/wasn’t grounded.  How could he possibly have thought it was a try and therefore asked the second question.  I believe he was correct in his enquiry.

I digress.  The problem with Scotland’s inability to score tries is now deep rooted in the team psyche.  It’s a problem that has now gone on for years and will be all too apparent to some of the more experienced players, perhaps adding an extra psychological pressure on them before and during games.  The introduction of fresh exciting faces like Lee Jones is an opportunity to get someone who has been scoring at will for his club to convert that success on the bigger stage.  Even that hasn’t worked, or at least it didn’t this weekend.  Max Evans and Lee Jones are great finishers, but often they are either left with too much to do, too deep or they never get the ball at all.  Our midfield isn’t creative enough to develop line breaks and set these wingers up to do what they do best.  Compare that to George North, Tommy Bowe or Julien Malzieu who have the physical presence and the skills to make things happen out wide.  Alternatively, look at Chris Ashton.  For all the things I don’t like about him, he does at least look for work by playing off the shoulder and coming into midfield so often. Scotland has neither of these options at the moment.

Scotland have an opportunity to put right the wrongs of Saturday, but it’s not going to be easy - next week they travel to Cardiff.  Wales demonstrated exactly what it takes to score tries against Ireland with the likes of Jonathan Davies, Jamie Roberts and the electric George North consistently punching through the Irish backline, showing the Scots how it’s done.

The fixture two years ago threw up a thriller, where Scotland (again) threw the game away in a ridiculous final 7 minute spell where Wales scored 17 points to claim a dramatic victory.  Robinson and his men will have to work hard this week and also take some risks.  His selection needs to be positive to at least give the Scotland faithful an idea of where their team is headed.  Only the very optimistic will forecast a Scottish victory next Sunday, but Scotland need to take the game to Wales and they need to score tries.