The 2014 6 Nations tournament will likely go down as the most turbulent for both the Scotland team and fans since the inaugural tournament in 2000, and ultimately, one to forget.
After a misleading third place finish last year, a result that was more down to the misfortune and bad form of others than the Scots own good form, this year is has been the Scottish players and coaching staff, led by Scott Johnson, who have contributed significantly to their own downfall.
Between the poor opening display in Dublin and the final humiliation against Wales last Saturday there was a toothless Calcutta Cup performance, a rare win in Rome and a spirited game against the French which slipped away from the Scots in the second half due to poor game management and match time decision making.
So more downs than ups, for sure, but in an effort to salvage some positives from the tournament by the end of this blog, the negatives first need to be looked at, starting with Saturday's loss to Wales.
Let's be clear, Scotland didn't lose because Stuart Hogg got sent off. It was clear from watching both teams before Hogg saw red that the Welsh were superior in most departments, and far more clinical. With 15 against 15, Wales would still have won the game convincingly, by around 25 points in my opinion. The eventual 48 point difference at the final whistle was down to Wales scoring 4 tries that wouldn't likely have materialised with Hogg on the field, either by Hogg directly affecting the play or by his presence preventing Wales initiating the counter attacking moves in the first place.
Scotland were poor. Dougie Fife on his debut had a terrible game, particularly defensively. His failure to take the high ball from Liam Williams that led to George North's first try, his missed tackle on Jonathan Davies in the lead up to Jamie Roberts' try and finally his defensive positioning, failing to stick to the outside man George North as he ran in for his second, all crucial mistakes at crucial times for Scotland.
Greig Laidlaw looked very laboured all over the pitch, and his eventual replacement Chris Cusiter proved once again in this tournament that he is the better scrum half of the two, providing more impetus and quicker ball from which to build.
Wales outmuscled Scotland all over the pitch
Richie Gray was ineffectual for the duration, Al Strokosch didn't have the physical impact against the gnarly Welsh back row that we were all looking for. He looked caught a little short following Kelly Brown's early injury. Max Evans showed endeavour but failed to back it up with poor execution and his physicality was all too often trumped by the huge Welsh back line. Duncan Weir, who I maintain is the best option available for Scotland at 10, had a poor game, either kicking too long or not finding his touch on too many occasions.
Stuart Hogg's red card in the 23rd minute was a turning point, but it wasn't the cause of the poor performance and loss. Whatever you may think about the decision, it can't really be debated. There's no way Hogg should have left the ground to make the hit on Biggar. Had he just kept running and allowed his momentum to carry him into the Welsh 10, it would have been a yellow at worst. The fact he demonstrated intent by jumping and leading with the shoulder makes it a clear decision.
Individuals aside, the team just didn't look coherent. The missed tackles racked up through the course of the game and Wales danced through the defensive line way too often. Jamie Roberts had his best game of the tournament, making line break after line break and capping it off with a try at the end of the first half.
In a certain respect, I'm perversely pleased that Scotland were once again brought down so convincingly in this tournament. Following the defeat to the English where Scotland failed to score a single point at home for the second time this season, it seemed the subsequent fortnight was spent by the media looking at the state of Scottish Rugby, and even the chief BBC sports writer Tom Fordyce wrote a lengthy piece on the subject having travelled to the Borders to talk about the drying up of talent from the area. The spotlight was on Scotland and it needed to be. That focus disappeared with a win in Italy. Suddenly Scotland were fine, they had won there for the first time since 2006 and all was rosy again.
I am the first to acknowledge that having the National team winning is probably the single biggest motivator for youngsters taking up the game and continuing to play, but that win seemed only to serve the SRU, who didn't cover themselves in glory following the Calcutta Cup defeat. Beating Italy diverted attention from them and they were no doubt pleased to see that particular crack papered over. The loss to Wales, and the nature of it, will hopefully serve to bring some of that focus back to the condition of the Scottish game, and highlight the inherent failures with the system, not least the number of Scottish players registered and playing, but the apparent bottleneck for progress of only having two professional teams each with over 50 players on their books.
Back to the national teams performances, and what is hard to fathom for the Scotland fans is the lack of consistency. Being drubbed at home by the English, then winning it Italy before pushing France close at Murrayfield doesn't show much of anything to the Scotland faithful 18 months from a World Cup.
Saturday's game marked the end of Johnson's tenure as Head Coach.
He now moves on to his new position of Director of Rugby
What does seem clear is that a desire for consistency in performance starts with consistency in selection (look at England in this tournament), and Scott Johnson's decision making in this regard often beggared belief. Using captain Kelly Brown as the apparent scapegoat for a poor team performance in Dublin and dropping him entirely for two games was bizarre. When you compare the two home games, only 3 of the forwards that started against England also started against France - Ryan Grant, Jim Hamilton and David Denton. The inability to strike a balance in all 3 elements of the pack proved too much for Johnson. 5 props, 3 hookers, 4 second row players and 6 back rowers were used in various combinations over the tournament.
The story is slightly different in the backs, where if anything, the consistency in selection actually was one of the highlights for Scotland. The centre pairing of Matt Scott and Alex Dunbar continued from where they last left off on tour in South Africa last summer where they were both excellent. There's no doubt that Scott's injury during the Autumn tests was a massive blow for Scotland and this tournament has gone a long way to showing that these two are the pair that could be in place for Scotland for a long time to come.
All that said, the backs only combined to score 4 tries in the whole tournament, (none were scored by forwards), proving that that particular age-old problem still lingers for Scotland. In fact, 2014 marked a new low as Scotland came 6 points short of achieving their previous lowest tournament points total. The 47 points amassed in 5 games wouldn't have been enough to see off Wales on Saturday.
Duncan Weir's inclusion in the starting line up in Dublin, and his continued presence, has divided opinion amongst fans. As I've iterated many times here, I am a fan and see him as the future for Scotland, certainly beyond the next world cup. His selection combined with the non-selection of any other recognised fly half specialist seems to indicate that the coaching staff (influenced or not by the prospective head coach Vern Cotter) agree with this. I think they're right.
Weir has been somewhat thrust into the role. His lack of international experience and lack of playing time this season meant he was the rabbit in the proverbial headlights coming into the Ireland game. He has been up and down throughout, his obvious highlight being the winning drop goal against Italy while his low was throwing the intercepted pass that led to an Huget try for France. On reflection, he will realise the experience has been nothing but valuable and I hope for him that he uses that to kick on.
Sean Lamont is ageing and will be lucky to make the world cup. Sean Maitland was unlucky to get injured in the opening game, but Tommy Seymour came in to good effect in his absence. As already mentioned, Dougie Fife will have better days in a Scotland shirt, it's a shame he will have to wait a few months to right some of those wrongs.
Scotland's backs have competed well but executed poorly
throughout the 6 Nations
So what next? The anticipation of Vern Cotter's arrival in Scotland is palpable amongst fans. The expectation will likely be sky high given Cotter's CV, but he has one hell of a job to do. While Johnson has sought to deepen the pool of international quality players by blooding many over his tenure, Vern Cotter requires to expand, find a consistency and build some confidence. Scotland are in with a very good shout of qualifying from their world cup group next year but before that, there are games in North and South America, South Africa and of course next years 6 Nations to deal with.
While Cotter has had to play with what he wants at Clermont Auvergne, he'll need to be satisfied with playing with what he's got at Scotland. There is talk of Scott Johnson being retained as attack/backs coach as a second string to his role of Director of Rugby but this sounds illogical to me. As David Ferguson of the Scotsman wrote this week, Johnson has genuine expertise and experience to help develop the structure of the game in Scotland, he does not need to be on the front line coaching players at the same time.
Cotter needs to be afforded the resources he needs to get the job he envisages done - the SRU need to back him up. At the same time, the structure of the game in Scotland needs to be addressed, starting with the addition of one, if not two new professional teams. The SRU are currently working on their comprehensive 6 Nations review that will see investment into creating four new academies around Scotland to reflect the four district system of old. Scott Johnson will oversee this creation and will lead the nurturing process.
It's no secret that Scotland are being left behind, it's a yarn that is spun at this time every year following what is more often than not a disappointing 6 Nations tournament. This year is no different, but there does seem to be more of a public reaction to Scotland's shortcomings, and resultantly an effort by the SRU to do something about it. There is a great deal of work to do, and a long road to wind for Scotland. Fans will be hoping Vern Cotter's arrival is a catalyst to exiting this 15 year long slump. Only time will tell.
