Who will win Sports Personality of the Year 2012?
This year, it's a tantalising choice and given my correct prediction of Mark Cavendish last year, I have a record to keep intact.
Firstly, it's important to acknowledge that in an iconic year for UK sport, the standard has been raised across the board, with all but one of the nominees (Rory McIlroy) taking part in the Olympics and succeeding in at least one aspect.
So it's with this in mind that in a historical year for UK sport, only a truly historic achievement should merit the award. This, for me, boils it down to two candidates.
I am not trying to downplay the achievements of any of the nominees. Winning one, two or even more Olympic medals is simply phenomenal and will see their names rightfully entered into the annals of triumphant sporting history. But for Bradley Wiggins and Andy Murray, they not only achieved that Olympic success, but did something that no Brit has done in either 7 decades or ever.
Ironically, of the 12 nominees, these two have perhaps the least publicly perceived 'personality' of the lot. Both quiet men, they look as uncomfortable in front of a camera as each other, but equally and clearly passionate about what they do, even if they can't convey particularly well through a TV set.
Take Andy Murray. For years he has been the 'almost but not quite' guy - the Colin Montgomerie of tennis. One member of the greatest quartet of players to be playing the game in the same era, until this summer he was the only one of the four never to have won a Grand Slam. 3 finals had been and gone and Murray was being tagged with the frustrating and frankly patronising labels assigned to not just losers, but British sporting losers - 'brave' and 'courageous'. It was never 'winner' or 'heroic'.
Andy Murray winning the US Open
His success at the US Open this year not only merits recognition because he is the first British male in 76 years to win a major singles title, but because he has never stopped trying. Like all the very best sportsmen and women, he has a never say die attitude and has never openly doubted himself and his abilities while others around him and in the media may have. In a sport that relies so heavily on psychology as well as the fine combination of endurance and technical ability, Andy Murray has proved himself to be one of the greatest sportsman of his generation this country has produced.
Similarly, Bradley Wiggins' achievements in winning this years Tour de France have been borne out of disappointment in previous years. In 2011, he was tipped for the top before a crash and broken collarbone ruled him out of contention while he was sitting 3rd in the general classification.
This year, he came back fitter and stronger than ever, and with a team of the very best around him, led by coach Dave Brailsford. In the run up to the Tour, Wiggins and Team Sky had swept all before them, most notably the Paris-Nice and the Criterium de Dauphine, the winner of which is usually successful in the Tour later in the year. The first Brit to ever win the Tour in it's 99 year history, he has achieved an even higher level legendary status in British cycling.
Wiggins became the first Brit to win the Tour de France
His gold medal in the Olympic road time trial less than 2 weeks after the conclusion of the Tour confirmed him as the world's best at that discipline, and as the best all round cyclist in the world this year.
These two men have achieved far more than just Olympic success this year, they have created British sporting history. For me, it's a two horse race for the grand prize this weekend but I struggle to pick between them. My Scottish bias errs me towards Murray, but my years of fondly watching the Tour since I was a boy on holiday in France (even going to see the famous Mont Ventoux stage of 1994 live) mean I have a soft spot for Wiggins.
If pushed, I would say Wiggins might just take it. Of course, this all may be academic and neither one will take the glory. We'll just have to tune in and see.
Sports Personality of the Year 2012 Nominees:
Nicola Adams
Ben Ainslie
Jessica Ennis
Mo Farah
Katherine Grainger
Sir Chris Hoy
Rory McIlroy
Andy Murray
Ellie Simmonds
Sarah Storey
David Weir
Bradley Wiggins