Scotland's Team Selection Is A Vote Of No Confidence For Jackson

by Dugald Skene

Scott Johnson has once again proved his ability to baffle, or at least defy expectations.  Scotland's interim head coach has picked his 23 man squad for the upcoming opening game of the 6 Nations in Dublin and has left some notable names either on the bench, or out of the squad completely.

The immediate headlines in the wake of the announcement appear to centre around the international return of full back Stuart Hogg.  Absent for the November tests, his inclusion now is hardly a surprise. When fit, he can now be considered a shoo-in for a starting berth.  Perhaps more significant is the start that has been given to Duncan Weir at fly half and consequently, the omission of Ruaridh Jackson from the match day squad altogether.

I have to say I'm delighted with this particular selection. I won't go over it all again, but I saw this tournament as the last chance for Ruaridh Jackson to stake his claim as the consistent starting 10 for Scotland in the lead up to next year's World Cup.  I have also seen Weir as the long term fixture in the position, so to see Johnson plump for him from the outset is great news.

Duncan Weir starts for Scotland with Ruaridh Jackson

out of the match day squad

It is a risky strategy though, as the back up for Weir is his half back partner Greig Laidlaw. With both starting, Johnson is clearly expecting one or the other to see out 80 minutes, most likely Laidlaw.  With only Chris Cusiter on the bench who can cover at 9, Stuart Hogg is the only man with experience, albeit limited experience, at the fly half position at anything like this level.

Scotland do have flexibility in the backs. Sean Lamont can, although shouldn't, play in the centre and Maitland can cover across the back three if pieces need moved around.  The back line generally has a sense of defensive solidity about it, perhaps purveying a negative approach to the game.  But like fielding a defensive line up in football when playing away from home, Johnson can't be blamed for taking this tack.  Scotland will be looking to smash and grab when they can but will fully expect to spend the majority of their time keeping the Irish out.

This all makes Hogg's inclusion more important, and shifts a fair amount of responsibility to spark some attacking backs play on to his shoulders.  He is perhaps the only Scottish back that has the ability to make something out of nothing, and can do it from deep as he has proved so many times before.

I like the inclusion of Alex Dunbar, but regret he isn't getting to start with Matt Scott, the centre combination I see as the future for Scotland and which played so well last summer in South Africa. Duncan Taylor had a torrid Autumn for Scotland but will hopefully look to reverse that form and play to the potential he has shown at Saracens.  There's no doubt he'll see more of the ball playing outside Weir rather than Jackson.

The forward pack selection has also thrown up some surprises, not so much about who's in, but who's out. Richie Gray, Geoff Cross and Johnnie Beattie are all on the bench.  While Scotland fans will see less of the talismanic Gray than they did a couple of seasons ago now he plies his trade at Castres, they will have fond memories of his runaway try against the Irish in 2012 and will have wanted to see him start again.  That said, the strength at second row is particularly deep at the moment, and Hamilton and Swinson provide plenty of power in the heart of the scrum.

Ryan Wilson has been selected at 6 and David Denton at 8, ahead of Beattie. Captain Kelly Brown continues at 7, a position to which he is not naturally attuned. Beattie is the only specialist back row cover on the bench.

In the front row Ryan Grant naturally starts, with the out of form Ross Ford getting the nod at hooker, a position he still hasn't adjusted to since the scrum law changes. He needs a big game, as does Moray Low, who has never got it all together for Scotland. Up against Cian Healy, he'll have it all to do.

The Irish are up there with the favourites to win the tournament this year, despite needing to travel to Twickenham and the Stade de France, but with two home games up first, they'll be keen to get off to a flier.  The Australians really rocked their scrum back in November and that will be an area Scotland will target if the front row can click.

It's going to be a hell of a test for the Scots, but a repeat of 2010 isn't out of the question, and if they can reduce the game to a slug fest and stop the Irish from scoring early, like last year, Scotland can compete with anyone.

Scotland team to face Ireland:

15 Stuart Hogg
14 Sean Maitland
13 Alex Dunbar
12 Duncan Taylor
11 Sean Lamont
10 Duncan Weir
9 Greig Laidlaw

1 Ryan Grant
2 Ross Ford
3 Moray Low
4 Tim Swinson
5 Jim Hamilton
6 Ryan Wilson
7 Kelly Brown (c)
8 David Denton

Substitutes:
16 Pat MacArthur
17 Alasdair Dickinson
18 Geoff Cross
19 Richie Gray
20 Johnnie Beattie
21 Chris Cusiter
22 Matt Scott
23 Max Evans

The 2014 Six Nations Is, On Paper, Wide Open

by Dugald Skene

Here we go again.

The 2014 6 nations seems to promise the usual thrills and spills, but there is a decided air of uncertainty going around as to who will take the championship crown.  The English are well backed, and the Irish and French also have good support following the success of the provincial and top 14 teams in this year's Heineken Cup.

Unfortunately as a Scotland fan, there isn't much promise beyond the usual expectations, but being an 'even' year, Scotland do host the English and French at Murrayfield and on their day, have the ability to throw a spanner in the works.

It seems almost clichéd to say that the Italians are an ever-improving force, and there's no doubt they will be eyeing the fifth placed spot at the very least, especially as they host Scotland in week 4 and have always played strongly against England in Rome in recent years.

Wales are perhaps the biggest unknown, simply down to who is fit and who isn't. Captain Sam Warburton has already been announced as being a substitute for the opening salvo against Italy at the Millennium, and Warren Gatland will have a few holes to fill elsewhere.  With 3 games at home though, they can't be discounted as they look to claim their third championship on the spin.

In most respects, predictions are somewhat pointless and generally founded on the form of individual players rather than the teams.  The last time each nation played was in November, and while not that long ago, autumn test form is rarely a barometer for 6 Nations success - just look at France last year.

Can Wales make it 3 in a row?

That said, the final table is something to muse, so why not?

First off, I don't believe there will be a grand slam winner this year.  The fixtures are such that everybody has tough away days that some will win and some won't.  I see Wales losing at Twickenham, but Ireland triumphing.  On the reverse, I can see Wales winning in France where they have a wonderful record but France beating Ireland in what could well be a championship decider on March 15th in Paris.

Scotland have always been good value in Wales, most notably in 2010 where they suffered a heart aching self destruction to lose in the final seconds.  Is 2014 there year to win in Cardiff?  The English in turn have only won once at Murrayfield since 2004.  Scotland always raise their game for the arrival of the English.

So no, there won't be a grand slam this year - that is probably my most confident prediction.  The winner however, is between France, Ireland and England.  While Ireland have an opportunity to get a strong start under their belts with 2 home games against Scotland and Wales, the French host the English in week once in a game that could define the rest of the tournament.  England played so well in France 2 years ago to win, but I don't see that bit of history repeating itself this year.  The French clubs have played so well in European competition so far this year, and the French contingents of each seem to be gaining form as their clubs do.

For me, I think the French will win the tournament.  There is no lack of talent and ability to run away with the 6 Nations on an annual basis for France, it always seems to come down to attitude and team selection.  The former should be sharpened following last year's awful showing, so it's down to the combinations that take to the field.

Ireland will come second this year.  The fixtures suit them with 2 home games up first and a trip to Twickenham with 2 weeks break either side in the middle, a game I fancy them for.  Ireland will go to Paris on Super Saturday looking for a Grand Slam but will come up short, and France will sneak off with the trophy from under their noses.

With predicted losses to the French and Irish, I see the English winning their other fixtures.  Scotland away and Wales at home will be tough affairs, and I admit I would dearly love to see them lose both, but I think they are starting to come good, achieving a consistency in both form and selection under Lancaster now that spells out a clear focus on 2015.

My heart says Scotland will win in both Italy and Wales, two games where they will be undoubted underdogs. They will finish fourth.  My head fears for the worst.

Wales will come in fifth and Italy will round off the group, but I have to stress not because they are perceived as the whipping boys anymore (not that a Scotland fan could ever claim they were).

It's going to be a fascinating tournament, and for once I think all the hyperbole from the head coaches ahead of the opening weekend may well ring true. While none of them are bigging up their own team, at least 4 of them will be confident of going home with the crown.  For that reason alone, all of them will fall short of the grand slam.