SPOTY 2012: Who Will Win It?

by Dugald Skene

Who will win Sports Personality of the Year 2012?

This year, it's a tantalising choice and given my correct prediction of Mark Cavendish last year, I have a record to keep intact.

Firstly, it's important to acknowledge that in an iconic year for UK sport, the standard has been raised across the board, with all but one of the nominees (Rory McIlroy) taking part in the Olympics and succeeding in at least one aspect.

So it's with this in mind that in a historical year for UK sport, only a truly historic achievement should merit the award. This, for me, boils it down to two candidates.

I am not trying to downplay the achievements of any of the nominees. Winning one, two or even more Olympic medals is simply phenomenal and will see their names rightfully entered into the annals of triumphant sporting history. But for Bradley Wiggins and Andy Murray, they not only achieved that Olympic success, but did something that no Brit has done in either 7 decades or ever.

Ironically, of the 12 nominees, these two have perhaps the least publicly perceived 'personality' of the lot. Both quiet men, they look as uncomfortable in front of a camera as each other, but equally and clearly passionate about what they do, even if they can't convey particularly well through a TV set.

Take Andy Murray. For years he has been the 'almost but not quite' guy - the Colin Montgomerie of tennis. One member of the greatest quartet of players to be playing the game in the same era, until this summer he was the only one of the four never to have won a Grand Slam. 3 finals had been and gone and Murray was being tagged with the frustrating and frankly patronising labels assigned to not just losers, but British sporting losers - 'brave' and 'courageous'.  It was never 'winner' or 'heroic'.
 

Andy Murray winning the US Open

His success at the US Open this year not only merits recognition because he is the first British male in 76 years to win a major singles title, but because he has never stopped trying. Like all the very best sportsmen and women, he has a never say die attitude and has never openly doubted himself and his abilities while others around him and in the media may have. In a sport that relies so heavily on psychology as well as the fine combination of endurance and technical ability, Andy Murray has proved himself to be one of the greatest sportsman of his generation this country has produced.

Similarly, Bradley Wiggins' achievements in winning this years Tour de France have been borne out of disappointment in previous years. In 2011, he was tipped for the top before a crash and broken collarbone ruled him out of contention while he was sitting 3rd in the general classification.

This year, he came back fitter and stronger than ever, and with a team of the very best around him, led by coach Dave Brailsford. In the run up to the Tour, Wiggins and Team Sky had swept all before them, most notably the Paris-Nice and the Criterium de Dauphine, the winner of which is usually successful in the Tour later in the year.  The first Brit to ever win the Tour in it's 99 year history, he has achieved an even higher level legendary status in British cycling.

Wiggins became the first Brit to win the Tour de France

His gold medal in the Olympic road time trial less than 2 weeks after the conclusion of the Tour confirmed him as the world's best at that discipline, and as the best all round cyclist in the world this year.

These two men have achieved far more than just Olympic success this year, they have created British sporting history.  For me, it's a two horse race for the grand prize this weekend but I struggle to pick between them.  My Scottish bias errs me towards Murray, but my years of fondly watching the Tour since I was a boy on holiday in France (even going to see the famous Mont Ventoux stage of 1994 live) mean I have a soft spot for Wiggins.

If pushed, I would say Wiggins might just take it.  Of course, this all may be academic and neither one will take the glory.  We'll just have to tune in and see.

Sports Personality of the Year 2012 Nominees:

Nicola Adams
Ben Ainslie
Jessica Ennis
Mo Farah
Katherine Grainger
Sir Chris Hoy
Rory McIlroy
Andy Murray
Ellie Simmonds
Sarah Storey
David Weir
Bradley Wiggins

Carlin Isles: The Fastest Man In Rugby?

by Dugald Skene

If you haven't seen it by now, check out this video of the frighteningly quick USA sevens player Carlin Isles.  With that priceless ability in sevens to make something out of nothing, he is pretty special.

Unsuccessful in his quest to compete at the 100m in the Olympics, he has turned to sevens rugby in an effort to reach Rio 2016.

Patriots Issue Texans With Reality Check

by Dugald Skene

Last year, the Houston Texans reached the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. This year, they have kicked on from that breakthrough to establish themselves as serious AFC title contenders.

The general consensus is that their run to a 11-1 record prior to this past weekend has been built on a combination of strong offence and defence, a relative rarity in the league. Consistently ranked in the top 5, if not top 3 teams in both areas in the league, Houston have seen themselves top the power rankings more than any other team this season.

The one blotch on their record came at home to a Green Bay Packers side that was coming off a run of indifferent results and languishing 3rd in the NFC North. An imperious display by QB Aaron Rodgers condemned the Texans to their only loss of 2012. The immediate reaction then was that the Texans would only face that sort of test against the top teams in the perceived stronger NFC - the Packers, Bears, 49ers et al. Given their form and their ability to dig out results in overtime as well as blow the occasional team out, the AFC title was surely only a formality, right?

Nobody told the New England Patriots.

After a shaky start in 2012, the Patriots have started to grow into the sort of perennial form that has seen them reach 5 Superbowls in the last decade or so. Under coach Bill Bellichik and led by QB Tom Brady, they are the epitomy of hardened playoff performers, and know exactly what it takes to get there, and then see it through. A trip to Foxboro to take on the Patriots is as stern a test as most will get in the NFL, and the Texans will have eyed the Monday Night Football clash as the true test to whether their aspirations of AFC glory are founded on solid ground or up in the clouds.

I'm not sure anyone expected this to be a blowout, but that's what it turned in to with Brady completing 21/35 for 296 yards and 4 touchdowns to help the Pats record a convincing 42-14 victory.

Tom Brady is fired up during last night's

demolition of the Texans

This was a reality check for the Texans. I still fully expect them to progress from last year in the playoffs and reach the AFC championship game where they are sure to meet the Patriots again. But if this dress rehearsal is anything to go by, they still have a lot of work to do.

Losses against Green Bay and now New England show that they struggle against the experienced quarterback. Both Brady & Rodgers are certain hall of famers, two of the best the league has ever seen with 4 Superbowl rings between them, but they are exactly the sort of opponent the Houston Texans will have to overcome in order to achieve their ultimate ambition.

This is a young and exciting team and one I hope to see go all the way, but for me, this year may be a little premature.

As for the Patriots, it will be hard to bet against them in the playoffs as Brady seeks that elusive 4th Superbowl ring.  Just like all the best teams, their form is starting to peak at the right time.  Some would argue that they want the Patriots to be beaten, just to give someone else in the AFC a go.  But you have to hand it to them. The longevity and sustained success of this team, which has had it's core kept intact for 10 years now, makes them one of the all time greats, up there with the  Joe Montana led 49ers team of the late 80's in my opinion.

So if that was a rehearsal for the AFC Championship game, week 15 sees the Patriots host the San Francisco 49ers in what many will predict as being the Superbowl match up in less than 2 months time.  If the Patriots come through that with a win, they will be favourites to go all the way.

Jason White Calls It A Day

by Dugald Skene

Jason White has called time on his professional rugby career.

In typically succinct fashion, he stated "That's me finished" as he admitted that other priorities in his life have meant that now is the right time to hang up the boots.  He said "I won't be playing professional rugby again. We've just had a little girl, so I'm on daddy duty for a while, which is great."

White in full flow against Italy

The move brings to an end any speculation of his move to a new club, with Glasgow Warriors the team tipped to acquire his talent. "I was certainly keen on a move back to Glasgow and there were signs of interest at their end and a lot of talk in the press about it." said White. "Unfortunately, it never quite happened. I would have liked to go there, but it wasn't to be."

White, 34, played 77 times for Scotland, captaining his country on 19 of those occasions.  That makes him the 6th most capped Scot of all time.  He developed a bit of a cult following after he strung together a series of displays in his early career that quickly earned him the reputation as one of the biggest tacklers in world rugby.  Quiet and unassuming off the pitch, he often did the best of his talking on it.

Scotland fans will fondly remember him tackling England winger Paul Sackey and driving him backwards 10 yards before unceremoniously dumping him on the deck during a Calcutta Cup clash at Murrayfield.  But that is just one of the many that could (and have) been strung together in video reels across the internet.

Strong in the lineout and in open play, he was a talismanic leader wherever he played and he will be missed from the field of play.  He has not stated what, if any ambitions he has in the game or what he might move on to next.

In the meantime, it never gets boring to remember some of those huge hits he has put in over the years, right until the end.

Jason White on Chris Wyles, courtesy of rugbydump.com

Scotland Drawn In Favourable Group For RWC 2015

by Dugald Skene

Scotland should come away from the Rugby World Cup draw fairly buoyant after being selected in a competitive group, but one that can be realistically overcome.

Scotland have been drawn in Pool B with South Africa, Samoa, the top qualifying Asian nation and the second top qualifying American nation.

In all likelihood, those last two places would be filled by Japan and the USA, if the rankings are anything to go by at the moment. Given recent form, both of those games would provide stern tests for the current Scotland squad.

It's by no means an easy group, clearly, but in comparison to 1 or 2 of the others, Scotland will feel relatively relieved.

The full draw for RWC 2015

Pool A sees hosts England being drawn with Wales who found themselves in the 3rd qualifying pool following their last gasp defeat to Australia, and to the Australians themselves. All three have history between each other, and it should prove to be mouth watering. England will have a clear home advantage come the World Cup, but there is no way of telling which of these three are likely to miss out on the quarter finals.

In Pool C, Webb Ellis trophy holders New Zealand have a reasonably comfortable looking group with Argentina and Tonga. As we know, the Tongans are all too able to cause an upset, but you would fully expect the All Blacks and Pumas to make the grade in this one. By the time the World Cup finally comes round, Argentina will have competed in 4 Rugby Championship's and should be a stronger team than we know today.

Pool D is all about European rivalries with France, Ireland and Italy all being drawn together. If history and 6 Nations form is anything to go by, France and Ireland would expect to graduate from this group, but both teams have history of upsets in the early stages of World Cups.

Not much can be analysed at such an early stage, and it will be another 2 years before the groups have been fully fleshed out following the conclusion of the qualifying rounds. Lots to mull over certainly, but there's a lot of rugby to be played between now and RWC 2015.

A Strange Old Week In Rugby

by Dugald Skene

It's been a strange old week for international rugby this week with resignations, bans, shortlists and even a sexist outburst. Where to start?

Andy Robinson

4 days have now passed since Andy Robinson announced his resignation from the top job in Scottish rugby. Reaction has been plentiful and varied, but there seems to be a general consensus that he has been a good thing for Scottish rugby, imposing an ethic and style even if the ultimate ambition of winning more games than they lose never quite happened. I think he had his moments, and he is no doubt a good coach, but he's definitely no martyr.

Andrew Hore

It was a cheap, unprovoked and reckless 'assault' on Bradley Davies in the opening minutes of New Zealand's game against Wales on Saturday that has seen Andrew Hore receive a 5 week ban from the IRB. The sentence was reduced from 8 weeks due to admission of guilt and having no previous. Since the weekend, Hore has come out and admitted his wrong and apologised for his actions.

Owen Farrell

The second choice English fly-half has somehow made it on to the 4 man shortlist for the IRB Player of the Year award, alongside more worthy contenders Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and the rejuvenated Frederic Michalak. The IRB panel, consisting of one member of each of the leading rugby nations (Will Greenwood being the English representative) have a lot to explain with Farrell's inclusion. After a solid, if unspectacular 6 Nations, he failed to figure in England's tour of South Africa and hasn't done much since. He's not even the best number 10 at his club Saracens. I find it staggering that the likes of Kieran Read and Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe in particular haven't been included. Stunned.

David Campese

The Australian try scoring record holder was at it again this week, this time dismissing a female journalist for being, well... female. He questioned why a 'girl' was reporting on rugby, a comment that has been slammed by many, not least injured Australian captain David Pocock who retorted on Twitter "Really sad to see journos attacked based on their gender. Or a grown woman referred to as a 'girl'". Campese, no stranger to a bit of controversy, best keep his trap shut if you ask me.

Scottish Rugby Needs To Take A Hard Look At Itself

by Dugald Skene

It's official, Scottish rugby is in dire staights.

This isn't a knee jerk reaction to the latest defeat at home to Tonga, although this is just the final chapter to what has been one of the most miserable years in Scottish rugby, culminating in the resignation of head coach Andy Robinson on Sunday. Instead, it is the natural conclusion to an evolution of the game in this country that has been forming since the dawn of professionalism almost 20 years ago.

Coach Andy Robinson has had enough

The 15-21 loss to the South Sea islanders at Pittodrie marked Scotland's 8th defeat of the year from 11 games. The other 3 games were all won on foreign soil.

If Scottish fans thought their team had any right to find themselves in the top 8 of the IRB rankings, the team have proved that by playing all but one (Argentina) of the other teams in the top 12 in 2012, they are exactly where they deserve to be in the ranking system right now, and that is solidly as a third tier nation.

To have any aspirations to be in the top 8, it requires to beat the occasional team multiple places ahead of you, and to consistently beat those immediately around you. Scotland have lost 2 of the 4 teams ranked below them this year (according to the rankings at the time those games were played), against Tonga and Italy. The win in tricky conditions in Australia and the subsequent victories against Fiji and Samoa represented nothing but a false dawn, morale boosters at a time when much of the focus in world rugby wasn't on them. When it mattered, at home and under the spotlight this autumn, Scotland had very little to show.

To find themselves in the third pool (just - Scotland have slipped to 12th in the world rankings after Saturday's defeat, below Italy and Tonga) for next months World Cup draw for 2015 should come as no surprise. Long gone are the days of the exclusive club of the top 8 including the top 3 southern hemisphere teams and the 5 nations. Rugby is far more of a global game and the likes of Argentina, Italy and Samoa have elbowed their way in with varying degrees of success over the last 15 years.

The problems that face Scotland are deep rooted. If you think about it, when was the last time Scotland fielded a world class team? In fact, when did Scotland last field a team with at least 4 or 5 world class players?

In my view, and looking at recent Lions tour parties, certainly not in the last 15 years.

Scotland have proved themselves to be the team that have reacted slowest to the game turning professional, and it has manifested itself in the World Cup qualifying positions for both 2011 and 2015. So why has this happened, and how can it be changed?

Like most things in the world of professional sport, it comes down to money. Scotland simply have never invested enough in the right things at the right times.

You got the impression that Andy Robinson had resigned not so much from the team, or even his role, but from the inherent problems deeper within the SRU system.  Following the defeat to Tonga, the SRU would not have fired him, of that I'm sure, so I see it slightly as a blessing that Robinson has left and by doing so, combined with the poor performances, has exposed the problems currently prevalent within the Scottish game.  The lack of expenditure at grass roots and at all levels of the game is right at the top of the list.

It's important to acknowledge, however, that Robinson is not a martyr in all this.  The facts and results speak for themselves and he has to be held as accountable as the players that go out to employ his strategies and tactics.  His win rate in competitive games is a measly 21% (4 from 19), which is completely unaccaptable any way you look at it, not least for the fans.

As to what happens now, there are so many questions.  The first, and perhaps most hotly discussed is who is going to be the next head coach?

One thing is for sure, the SRU won't be paying for a big name and are far more likely to recruit from within.  With that in mind, my money is on Sean Lineen to take the reins on at least an interim basis, perhaps until the end of the upcoming 6 Nations tournament.

Lineen's current role as 'Head of Player Aquisition' is one that could only be invented by the SRU.  It flies in the face of investing in youth development in this country by instead looking for 'ready-made' talent from elsewhere around the world.  After all, Scotland have a history of finding Antipodean talent in particular with Scottish roots available to play for Scotland in the past 20 years.

What Lineen has proved during his time at Glasgow is that he is a coach that instills a strong work ethic and gets the best out of his players.  He's not afraid to blood new players and has a great track record of introducing and nurturing young talent.  It could be argued that he is more valuable in his other role as Under 20 coach, but looking at the options with some sort of Scottish connection, he certainly has the best CV for the post.

What we do know is that Scotland have 3 years to turn this around ahead of the next World Cup.  One thing in the team's favour is the strength of it's younger talent, the likes of Richie Gray, David Denton, Matt Scott and Henry Pyrgos amongst others. They have an opportunity to form the backbone of a new future for the team, and Lineen has the credentials to allow that to happen.

The Scots are resigned to facing two teams currently ranked ahead of them in the World Cup, but so much can change in the space of the next 3 years.  Think back to 2008 when Argentina were a top 4 side, selected in Scotland's group alongside Pool 2 qualifiers England, only for Scotland to tour Argentina in 2010 and record a 2-0 series win. Scotland should have beaten them again in the World Cup in New Zealand but it wasn't to be.  In short (and to put a positive spin on it), rankings now aren't as relevant as performances then.

We shouldn't be preoccupied with who we might face that far down the line, instead we should concentrate on the here and now, get a strength and depth of squad established, playing consistently together and recording consistently positive results.  Under the right tutelage, Scotland can and should bounce back from this new low.

I'm not suggesting for one minute that we will be contesting for a top 4 or 5 place, but it is reasonable to expect to be consistently in the 6-9 bracket, especially given the pool of players we have relative to some of those nations ahead of us.

The Andy Robinson chapter has ended with a hugely disappointing full stop. As good as we are in Scotland to wallow in our sporting failures, it is imperative to look ahead. Rugby won't wait for us, we have a lot of chasing to do.

Positives & Negatives For Scotland After New Zealand Masterclass

by Dugald Skene

The general consensus following the defeat to New Zealand yesterday is that Scotland can walk away with their heads held high.  Yes, they are the first team this year to score 3 tries against the All Blacks, and yes, they surpassed their total achieved the last time the teams met by 19 points. But to lose by 29 points at home reflects the often massive gulf in skill sets and ability to take chances.

Scotland came away from this years 6 Nations tournament with little other than a renewed reputation for keeping the ball in hand and offloading.  David Denton was the tournament's biggest carrier and Scotland offloaded more than any other team but all too often to no effect.

At Murrayfield yesterday afternoon, they managed one single offload.  That is partly down to a clear tactic employed by coach Andy Robinson to keep it tight against the a competitive forward pack led by Richie McCaw, but it also shows a little lack of endeavour, particularly when the team were 20 points down and had nothing really to lose.

Compare that single offload to the 14 that the All Blacks completed and you start to see why and where they found the holes.  All the New Zealanders were at it, when the second half saw front rowers mixing it in the back line with the speedsters.

Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of the Scot's game was the missed tackle.  According to Opta, Scotland made 71 tackles but missed 21.  That's almost a quarter (23%) of their tackles missed. Again, compare that to New Zealand who completed 114 but missed only 11 (9%) and you start to see the difference.

Scotland were aggressive, and their line speed in defence was good, and even proved fruitful as the blitz defence saw Matt Scott intercept Dan Carter's pass, leading to Tim Visser's first try.  But all too often, and increasingly so as the match went on, Scotland fell off the tackles.

Tim Visser dots down for his first try against the All Blacks

Watching the game back, it is clear to see a reluctance from the All Black back line to move laterally, every player makes an effort to straighten the run and commit the defender before offloading.  The simple initial step to change direction baffled the Scottish defence throughout.  The passing out to the left which led to Julian Savea's first try was the perfect example, never did the All Blacks backs drift and squeeze out their winger.

The tight defence set up by Scotland was also undone in the second half when Dan Carter bypassed all of his backs and the Scottish defence by kicking cross field with the most glorious of punts to find Savea again who glided past Stuart Hogg to complete his brace.  Scotland simply didn't see it coming.

I'm not trying to be hard on Scotland.  They started well, and competed gamely.  The introduction of David Denton following Ross Rennie's departure after he dislocated his shoulder would have telling effect.  Although coming on just as New Zealand entered their purple patch in the run up to half time, Denton squared up to Richie McCaw and more than held his own, ultimately getting one over on the All Black captain as he barrelled him over at the end of the first half as Scotland lay siege to the visitors' line.

Possession was split evenly, and Scotland ended up with 57% of the ball, hence the high All Black tackle count. And although Scotland have found a man in Tim Visser that has the ability to finish off more of the moves that Scotland so often develop, it still wasn't as ruthless or opportunistic a display as the All Blacks.

Dan Carter was sublime at times in the match, orchestrating his backs effortlessly, and setting up three of the 6 All Black tries, two from clean line breaks and one from the boot.  He also managed 9 from 10 kicks for good measure.  As the all time points leader in international rugby, it is easy to think of him as a metronomic kicker, but his display yesterday outlined that he is the complete player.  With a try scoring record of almost 1 in every 3 games (29 from 93 caps), it is easy to see that he has everything in his game - a very well deserved man of the match.

Dan Carter was in sublime form against Scotland

Scotland can indeed walk away from the game pleased with some elements of their display, and certainly with nothing to fear against South Africa next week, but they will have to realise that there is a lot of work to do in the tight 6 day turnaround.  I think the tackle bags will be out this week.