NFL 2012 Preview

by Dugald Skene

It may be one of the shortest sports seasons around, but what the NFL lacks in longevity, it more than makes up for in competitiveness.

And so here we are again, on the cusp of another 5 month whirlwind that sees the New York Giants stepping out against the Dallas Cowboys tonight to defend their Superbowl champion status.



Eli Manning and the New York Giants Superbowl XLVI

But who will win their divisions, conferences and the big one, the Superbowl?



In a league that prides itself on competitiveness and providing as level a playing field as possible for all 32 teams, it is notoriously hard to predict a winner at any level.  Perhaps more than most years, the 2012 season looks set to produce some of the most tightly contested divisions.

AFC North

• Baltimore Ravens
• Pittsburgh Steelers
• Cincinnati Bengals
• Cleveland Browns

The last few seasons have seen the AFC North being contested almost exclusively between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.  On of the very best grudge match fixtures around, it'll no doubt throw up some season highlights again.  But both teams aren't what they were and both, particularly the Ravens, could be considered the old guys of the league.  Both will consider themselves worthy of not only their division but the AFC as well, and despite the ageing defences, they both look like contenders for the playoffs.

The Bengals will be looking to improve again on last year's 9-7 record, which many saw as exceeding expectations by reaching the playoffs.  As with the prospects of any team, much will rest on quarterback Andy Dalton who will look to guide his team to their first back-to-back playoffs in 30 years.  More than capable of putting some cats amongst the pigeons, their fixtures against their division rivals will be so important to their campaign. I fancy them to take some impressive scalps again, and would predict them to finish ahead of the Steelers in second place, earning a wildcard spot come week 17.

The Cleveland Browns have been pretty miserable of late and nothing really is come through over the preseason to suggest they will improve a great deal on their 4-12 record last term.  29 year old rookie Brandon Weedon comes in at quarterback with huge pressure to deliver.  Time isn't on his side and he has one of the steeper learning curves to tackle this year.  Definitely the weakest link in an otherwise strong group, I see the Browns propping up the rest this season.

AFC East

• Buffalo Bills
• Miami Dolphins
• New England Patriots
• New York Jets

Both the Bills and the Dolphins finished last season with 6-10 records, but have had varying success in the offseason to help improve this term.  The Bills have splashed out in an attempt to reach the Playoffs for the first time this millennium, with the biggest signing being free agent Mario Williams added to the offence in attempt to score more.

The Dolphins look to start over after a disappointing season last year.  Having failed to sign Seattle bound quarterback Matt Flynn from Green Bay, the Dolphins with new coach Joe Philbin have drafted rookie Ryan Tannehill to lead the line this year.  By no means the first, or even second pick QB at the draft, only time will tell whether the youngster can compete.  I don't expect big things this year but the Fins will be looking to improve and compete for second spot in the division.

Outright favourites for not only the AFC East, but the AFC championship and the strong contenders for a 4th Superbowl under Bill Belichik, the New England Patriots are the class of the division.  So close to taking Superbowl glory last time out, QB Tom Brady showed that he's still one of the best in the business, and hungry as ever to get a record equalling 4th ring.  It's hard to see who in the AFC can stop them.

The Jets have had an interesting offseason, not least by signing the unpredictable but often effective Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow.  A very public kick in the teeth for current QB Mark Sanchez, both will be vying for the starting spot this year.  With not too many weapons in the offence, it could be tricky for Rex Ryan's team to improve on their 8-8 record.  With the Patriots out front, they will be competing tooth and nail for that second spot with the Dolphins and Bills.

AFC South

• Houston Texans
• Tennessee Titans
• Indianapolis Colts
• Jacksonville Jaguars

Like the Patriots in the AFC East, it's hard to see past the Houston Texans for division glory this year.  Built on a solid defence, rated second best last year, they made the playoffs for the first time last season and will be looking to improve again.  Many people's pick for the Superbowl, they may just have the defence to challenge Tom Brady's offensive arsenal. I see them as the only realistic challenge and fully expect an AFC championship game between them and the Pats.

One of the more uninspiring teams in the NFL, the Jaguars have a lot of work to do this year.  With a new owner and head coach, things were looking good until the preseason was dominated by the ongoing contract negotiations with star running back Maurice Jones-Drew. MoJo aside, Jaguars have little to offer in attack and rookie QB Blaine Gabbert struggled majorly last year.  He showed next to nothing in his passing game, partly because he had little to aim at though he can't blame many of his mistakes and fumbles on his receivers. Much work to do.

Jake Locker seems to have nailed down the QB spot in Tennessee over Matt Hasselbeck and will no doubt look to fulfil his undoubted potential.  After showing glimpses of real talent last term, he helped the Titans to a 9-7 finish. With the Jaguars looking unlikely to improve vastly and the Colts a bit of an unknown, the Titans will surely be eyeing up second spot at worst.

Not much can be read into the Indianapolis Colts' season last year.  With no Peyton Manning due to injury and having released him in favour of the new improved model in rookie Andrew Luck, the Colts will definitely be improving on their paltry 2 wins they achieved last year.  When you consider under Manning they achieved at least 10 wins in their previous 9 seasons, it highlights what sort of blip it was.  Luck, although seemingly from the same Manning mould, is not Peyton Manning and will struggle to lead his new team to double figure wins this year, but they will prove a handful.

AFC West

• Denver Broncos
• San Diego Chargers
• Oakland Raiders
• Kansas City Chiefs

One of the biggest stories, if not the biggest of all, was Peyton Manning's transfer from the Indianapolis Colts, where he's been since he was drafted, to the Denver Broncos.  There are so many questions that surround, the move, the man and the team, not least regarding his health.  Having played no part for the Colts last year due to a neck injury, Manning has since had 4 separate operations.  Questions still surround his ability to move freely, scan the field fully and throw all the throws in his extensive playbook.  Time will tell, and a lot will depend on his offensive line to keep him safe. Having let go of Tim Tebow, it may only take one hit on Manning for the Broncos gamble to backfire.

As well as the Broncos, the Raiders and Chargers both went 8-8 last year.  Add to that the Chiefs only winning one game less and it goes to show wide open the division is.  Of the 3, it's the Chiefs that are looking like the most promising coming into this year.  An outside tip for many in the AFC, their attacking options at wide receiver are strong.  So long as QB Matt Cassel gets some consistent form, and that their solid defence stays healthy, could win 10-12 games this year.

The Chargers and Raiders may well find themselves fighting for the third and fourth places. As a fan of Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers, I struggle to see them be son average, but I don't see them improving a great deal this time out.

NFC North

• Green Bay Packers
• Detroit Lions
• Minnesota Vikings
• Chicago Bears

The NFC generally is chockablock with title contenders, far more so than the AFC.  The NFC North division is symptomatic of that quality and competition.

Minnesota aside, the three other teams can all lay a valid claim to the division title this year.  Green Bay went 15-1 into the playoffs last year, losing out to eventual Superbowl champions the NY Giants at Lambeau Field.  They've drafted well and bolstered their running game to complement the receiving core led by Jordi Nelson.  With a freer role for safety Charles Woodson, the defence, rated second worst in the NFL last year looks to be marginally stronger.  Led by the best QB in the business Aaron Rodgers, it's hard to bet against the Packers for the NFC championship.

Nothing will be straight forward in the NFC North though.  After throwing for over 5,000 yards last year, QB Matthew Stafford seems to have finally realised his potential.  With the best receiver in the league as his main target, Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson, the Lions will continue to pots up on the board.  They had a habit of rubbing a lot of teams the wrong way last season, unapologetically playing on the fringe of the rules, and often breaking them, they are a love/hate kind of team. But they won't care about that.

The Chicago Bears were in fine form until QB Jay Cutler was cut down with injury half way through the season. With Cutler back, they will give teams plenty more headaches this time around.  Together with the Packers and the Lions, I think they will reach double figures.  One from the three will likely lose out on a playoff place but it's genuinely too tight to call who that will be.

The Vikings aren't really worth the print, so to speak.  With only 3 wins to write home about last year, they have shown little over the off season to convince anyone much will change this time around.

NFC East

• New York Giants
• Dallas Cowboys
• Philadelphia Eagles
• Washington Redskins

The Giants are reigning Superbowl champions, and given their late season form, deservedly so.  Their regular season form was mixed, losing twice to the fairly poor Redskins for instance. Finishing 9-7, they then went on to beat the Packers at Lambeau and the fancied 49ers. Should they reach the playoffs again this time out, they'll prove a match for anyone in the NFL.  They seem to thrive in knockout competition.

The self proclaimed 'Dream Team' prior to the start of the 2011 season, the Eagles failed to achieve anything like their expectations.  In 2012, there haven't been any such claims, but many are predicting a strong season. More than most, their chances depend heavily on the health of their mobile but fragile quarterback Michael Vick. Seemingly unable to go through a full regular season without injury, if they can keep him upright through 17 weeks, the Eagles could go a long way.

Both the Cowboys and the Redskins will be improved this year.  After trading up to grab second pick Robert Griffin III, the rookie quarterback from Baylor, the Redskins will look to add to the 4 wins they achieved in 2011. Despite beating the Giants home and away, they did little else to impress.  The acquisition of veteran receiver Pierre Garcon from the New Orleans Saints will add options and vital experience to the offensive side of the ball.

The Cowboys will be looking to QB Tony Romo to push them to the playoffs this year.  Despite a disappointing end to the regular season, they showed that they have the tools to go that bit further.  But I feel they might just come up short this time out.

NFC South

• New Orleans Saints
• Atlanta Falcons
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Carolina Panthers

I like this division, not least because it's as competitive as any other.  After all of the offseason problems, fines, bans and exclusions, the Sean Payton-less Saints will be looking to their talismanic and record breaking quarterback Drew Brees to steer them to the playoffs once again. Unlucky to lose to the awesome defence of the 49ers at Candlestick Park, the Saints very nearly did it last year. The biggest question in 2012 will be whether the lack of coach in Sean Payton will prove detrimental to their chances, and if so, how badly.  I think they will get at least 10 wins - their quality is there to achieve that. Playoff contenders, but no more.

Of all the teams in this division, it's the Panthers I see as coming out on top.  Record breaking rookie QB Cam Newton comes into this season off the back of a huge year, breaking the record for combined passing and running yards. A solid draft has seen the defence improve in preseason, and will see the Panthers be a real outside bet for a run deep into the playoffs.

The Falcons are the real 'Jekyll & Hyde' team in the league. Very good home form means they are contenders for a wildcard spot, but they have to improve on the road. A fairly uneventful offseason leaves us thinking not much might change this year.  I think they'll be ousted by both the Saints and the Panthers.

The Buccaneers will surely improve this year.  Many of the main instigators of an unsettled locker room have been dispensed with, and new young replacements drafted in.  QB Josh Freeman has the talent to progress this team given the chance. I see improvement but no more than 7 wins in 2012.

NFC West

• Arizona Cardinals
• Seattle Seahawks
• San Francisco 49ers
• St Louis Rams

San Francisco are up there as one of the top contenders in the NFC, and in my opinion the likely opponents to the Packers in the NFC Championship game.  Their defence is well known to be tight and unforgiving and they have managed to hold on to the spine of that.  On offence, they have added receivers, most notably Mario Manningham from the Giants, to help quarterback Alex Smith put the points on the board. Remember, the 49ers have never lost a Superbowl championship game.  They've just got to get there first.

The Seahawks have added shrewdly in the off season, and the acquisition of No.2 Packers quarterback Matt Flynn is one that should suit the teams style of play. Traditionally strong at home, they will look to use that advantage to mount a campaign for a wildcard spot. I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do on the road in 2012.

The Cardinals have been very much a middle-of-the-road team the past few seasons, and once again I see little changing in 2012. They'll cause an upset here and there, and will have a say in their own division, but they won't be challenging come the end of the regular season.

The Rams have brought in new head coach Jeff Fisher to the fray to help them improve on a pretty dismal season in 2011. Fisher has instilled his trademark tenacity into his squad and they have had a relatively solid, if unspectacular preseason.  They will host the Patriots at Wembley in October in what will be a great spectacle for UK fans.

The Winners

So who do I see coming out on top?

AFC Championship:  The New England Patriots will overcome the Houston Texans for a spot in their 6th Superbowl this side of 2000.

NFC Championship:   For me, it's got to be the Green Bay Packers, just outgunning the defence of the San Francisco 49ers.

Superbowl XLVII:   After losing so narrowly last time out, I see the Patriots learning, adapting and overcoming the Packers.  It would be a game that would see the two best quarterbacks going head to head and it would be a high scoring game, no doubt. 

Who are your picks this season and who are your dark horses?