Scott Johnson has once again proved his ability to baffle, or at least defy expectations. Scotland's interim head coach has picked his 23 man squad for the upcoming opening game of the 6 Nations in Dublin and has left some notable names either on the bench, or out of the squad completely.
The immediate headlines in the wake of the announcement appear to centre around the international return of full back Stuart Hogg. Absent for the November tests, his inclusion now is hardly a surprise. When fit, he can now be considered a shoo-in for a starting berth. Perhaps more significant is the start that has been given to Duncan Weir at fly half and consequently, the omission of Ruaridh Jackson from the match day squad altogether.
I have to say I'm delighted with this particular selection. I won't go over it all again, but I saw this tournament as the last chance for Ruaridh Jackson to stake his claim as the consistent starting 10 for Scotland in the lead up to next year's World Cup. I have also seen Weir as the long term fixture in the position, so to see Johnson plump for him from the outset is great news.
Duncan Weir starts for Scotland with Ruaridh Jackson
out of the match day squad
It is a risky strategy though, as the back up for Weir is his half back partner Greig Laidlaw. With both starting, Johnson is clearly expecting one or the other to see out 80 minutes, most likely Laidlaw. With only Chris Cusiter on the bench who can cover at 9, Stuart Hogg is the only man with experience, albeit limited experience, at the fly half position at anything like this level.
Scotland do have flexibility in the backs. Sean Lamont can, although shouldn't, play in the centre and Maitland can cover across the back three if pieces need moved around. The back line generally has a sense of defensive solidity about it, perhaps purveying a negative approach to the game. But like fielding a defensive line up in football when playing away from home, Johnson can't be blamed for taking this tack. Scotland will be looking to smash and grab when they can but will fully expect to spend the majority of their time keeping the Irish out.
This all makes Hogg's inclusion more important, and shifts a fair amount of responsibility to spark some attacking backs play on to his shoulders. He is perhaps the only Scottish back that has the ability to make something out of nothing, and can do it from deep as he has proved so many times before.
I like the inclusion of Alex Dunbar, but regret he isn't getting to start with Matt Scott, the centre combination I see as the future for Scotland and which played so well last summer in South Africa. Duncan Taylor had a torrid Autumn for Scotland but will hopefully look to reverse that form and play to the potential he has shown at Saracens. There's no doubt he'll see more of the ball playing outside Weir rather than Jackson.
The forward pack selection has also thrown up some surprises, not so much about who's in, but who's out. Richie Gray, Geoff Cross and Johnnie Beattie are all on the bench. While Scotland fans will see less of the talismanic Gray than they did a couple of seasons ago now he plies his trade at Castres, they will have fond memories of his runaway try against the Irish in 2012 and will have wanted to see him start again. That said, the strength at second row is particularly deep at the moment, and Hamilton and Swinson provide plenty of power in the heart of the scrum.
Ryan Wilson has been selected at 6 and David Denton at 8, ahead of Beattie. Captain Kelly Brown continues at 7, a position to which he is not naturally attuned. Beattie is the only specialist back row cover on the bench.
In the front row Ryan Grant naturally starts, with the out of form Ross Ford getting the nod at hooker, a position he still hasn't adjusted to since the scrum law changes. He needs a big game, as does Moray Low, who has never got it all together for Scotland. Up against Cian Healy, he'll have it all to do.
The Irish are up there with the favourites to win the tournament this year, despite needing to travel to Twickenham and the Stade de France, but with two home games up first, they'll be keen to get off to a flier. The Australians really rocked their scrum back in November and that will be an area Scotland will target if the front row can click.
It's going to be a hell of a test for the Scots, but a repeat of 2010 isn't out of the question, and if they can reduce the game to a slug fest and stop the Irish from scoring early, like last year, Scotland can compete with anyone.
Scotland team to face Ireland:
15 Stuart Hogg
14 Sean Maitland
13 Alex Dunbar
12 Duncan Taylor
11 Sean Lamont
10 Duncan Weir
9 Greig Laidlaw
1 Ryan Grant
2 Ross Ford
3 Moray Low
4 Tim Swinson
5 Jim Hamilton
6 Ryan Wilson
7 Kelly Brown (c)
8 David Denton
Substitutes:
16 Pat MacArthur
17 Alasdair Dickinson
18 Geoff Cross
19 Richie Gray
20 Johnnie Beattie
21 Chris Cusiter
22 Matt Scott
23 Max Evans
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