Irish Loss Ironically Shows The Turning Of A Corner

by Dugald Skene

Given the result on Sunday, and the nature of the 12-8 loss for Ireland at Murrayfield that day, it might be strange to suggest that the Irish have finally decided to turn the corner that they have seemingly refused since their 2009 Grand Slam winning campaign.  But I think that's exactly what has happened.

Declan Kidney has taken much of the stick for Ireland's poor display, particularly in the second half, and although culpable to a large degree, he also needs to be praised for his approach to the game.

Ireland were ultimately let down by the players' inability to finish off the chances they created and convert the huge amounts of possession and territory they enjoyed in the game. They allowed the Scots back into the game and paid the price.

Declan Kidney has taken the brunt of the blame

for Ireland's loss to Scotland

Hindsight, as they say, is a wonderful thing, and everyone can point fingers at the coaching staff for poor selection, but that isn't what lost the game.

Instead if I was an Irish fan, once the pain of such a demoralising loss had subsided, I'd be encouraged that the Irish dominated a game for huge portions of the match with a lot of young and fresh talent.

So Paddy Jackson didn't have a great day with the kicking tee.  It happens, he'll improve.  Fellow debutant Luke Marshall was the standout player in the first half and looked perfectly at home in international rugby.  With the recent debut caps for the likes of Craig Gilroy and Simon Zebo, I think we are starting to see the changing of the old guard in Irish rugby.

This has been coming for Irish fans. The so called 'golden generation', led by inspirational centre Brian O'Driscoll, is starting to fade away, although O'Driscoll (along with Rob Kearney) is one of the few who can still legitimately claim a starting berth for the Irish.  Ronan O'Gara has lost his ability to secure a match in the closing stages as a stabilising substitute.  Some of his decision making was flawed to say the very least when Ireland needed him and his renowned composure in such a tight contest.  Although forced out by injury, I don't believe Gordon D'Arcy is worthy of a starting place in the team and the likes of Luke Marshall have shown that to be the case.

These players all peaked during their 2009 Grand Slam campaign and Kidney rode the wave created by that success through to the World Cup in New Zealand in 2011.  If 2009 wasn't the time to change, 2011 surely was.  And yet Kidney has for the large part refused to adapt and bring in younger talent when the chances have come.  For me, in culminated in the 3-0 series loss in New Zealand.

Since that summer tour, Kidney has recognised the need to freshen up the team.  He has selected a new captain in Jamie Heaslip, despite the ongoing participation of O'Driscoll.  He has debuted more players in the last 6 months than I can remember for some time.

I accept that most of the changes made for Sunday's game were borne out of necessity given the extensive injury list Ireland currently have, but Kidney didn't have to start Jackson. He could have played it safe and started O'Gara, but he chose not to.  Regardless of the result and the player's own performance, that has to be applauded.

It may all be too little too late as the fans and media in Ireland mount increasing pressure on Kidney, but it can't be argued that he is trying to do something new and finally get Ireland out of the selection rut it has been in for the last 4 years or so.

Every change comes with growing pains, and Sunday's defeat at Murrayfield is the first big one.  They are also hard to get used to, especially when the status quo has been in place for over a decade.

If Kidney is really trying to push through a much needed revolution in Irish Rugby, he has to be given the chance to see it out.  There is still enough time before the next World Cup to develop these young players into hardened test match veterans, but they need to be exposed to that environment now for it to take effect.  It's hard to change a culture that so many have become accustomed to and there will be losses along the way, but it's all for the greater good in my book.

France vs Ireland Preview

Perhaps the most intriguing game of this weekends RBS 6 Nations will be when France host Ireland on Saturday.  Both teams have something to prove following the first round of results.

As seems to be the way this year, each team selection seems to be that bit more based on current form rather than old favourites, perhaps symptomatic of squad evolution following World Cups.  The French are no exception as they produced a solid enough display against the Italians to see out a 30-12 victory at the Stade de France.  The new look backline with the introduction of Wesley Fofana at centre and the return of the in form Julien Malzieu on the wing looked to be a settled unit which certainly took their chances when they presented themselves.

However, I wouldn't say that the French were at their brilliant best.  If anything over the last few years, particularly under Marc Lievremont, the French became less synonomous with the famous flair and more with how they can grind out results, and that's when they win.  The French lost on more occasions than they'd like to remember under Lievremont, including 3 games at the 2011 RWC and a trouncing at home to Australia.  Saturday's victory was much along the same lines - flashes of brilliance but still very much a workmanlike overall performance. 

Saint-Andre won't mind.  He was a player who thrived on capitalising on the great setup play created by having a hard working and heavy pack, much like the one he controls now.  I dare say that the French fans will be looking for a slight return to the days of free flowing rugby that saw their team win numerous Grand Slams early on in the 6 Nations.

Saint-Andre has tinkered slightly, most notably by bringing in the bigger Imanol Harinordiquy for Julien Bonnaire at openside, and starting with Morgan Parra in place of the injured Dmitri Yachvili (back).

Keith Earls will start for Ireland after missing

out against Wales for personal reasons

Saturday sees the visit of the Irish who will be hurting after losing at home to the Welsh, after being up by a score and a man with 10 minutes left in the game.  Winning in Dublin isn't easy, and it's a place the Irish hate to lose, so they will have everything to prove against the French on their own patch.

Perhaps the pressure will be off the Irish a little, as it is for any team playing away from home.  The Stade de France is an intimidating atmosphere when the French have the wind at their backs, but equally baron when the opposition get the upper hand.  Over the years, it has proved to be as much of a distraction to the French when they are losing than it is for the visitors when they are.

I think this will be as tight a game as the Welsh game was for the Irish, and I can't see who will win it.  The French haven't done enough in the first round to convince me that they can fulfil my prediction of winning the tournamnet.  Then again, it was Saint-Andre's first game at the helm, and a win is a win.  The Irish will be supremely motivated to put Sunday's result behind them and probably pleased that they only have 6 days to get out there and show their fans what they are all about.

Let's remember, at times, the Irish played very well against Wales and have the ability to beat anyone on their day.

It should be a cracking match, and I'm looking forward to it with relish.

France:

15. M Medard, 14. V Clerc, 13. A Rougerie, 12. W Fofana, 11. J Malzieu, 10. F Trinh-Duc, 9. M Parra, 1. JB Poux, 2. D Szarzewski, 3. N Mas, 4. P Pape, 5. Y Maestri, 6. T Dusautoir (c), 7. I Harinordoquy, 8. L Picamoles

Bench: 16. W Servat, 17. V Debaty, 18. L Nallet, 19. J Bonnaire, 20. J Dupuy, 21. L Beauxis, 22. M Mermoz.

Ireland:

15. R Kearney, 14. T Bowe, 13. K Earls, 12. G D’Arcy, 11. A Trimble, 10. J Sexton, 9. C Murray, 1. C Healy, 2. R Best, 3. M Ross, 4. D O’Callaghan, 5. P O’Connell (c), 6. S Ferris, 7. S O’Brien, 8. J Heaslip

Bench: 16. S Cronin, 17. T Court, 18. D Ryan, 19. P O’Mahony, 20. E Reddan, 21. R O’Gara, 22. F McFadden

6 Nations Preview

The 6 week long extravaganza that is the RBS 6 Nations officially launches today, and each nation will be heading in all with optimistic expectations.

After a world cup that saw some home nations excel and others ultimately leave disappointed, every team will be looking to improve during the 6 Nations.

I'll state now that I don't think there will be a Grand Slam winner this year. As the gaps in class between the 6 teams get smaller, everyone has the ability to take points from each other, this year more than ever.

Here's my rundown on each country, their key issues, expectations and players and what it'll take for each to take home the title.

England

England fans surely can't wait for the tournament to start. It'll be the first opportunity to see their team since the disappointing RWC campaign in New Zealand, to hopefully wipe the slate clean and of course to see if they can defend their 6 Nations title.

A new era has brought in a new interim coach with Stuart Lancaster calling the shots. His elite squad includes 9 uncapped players who are all based in England with the exception of Ben Morgan (Scarlets) and who have all performed well for their respective clubs.

Stand out additions include Owen Farrell who has been superb at Saracens. Playing at 12 lately with the resurgence of Charlie Hodgson at 10, Farrell looks a player well beyond his 20 years, exciting and with a good kicking boot. A useful kicking option at inside centre, he provides a Mike-Catt-style midfield option and of all the new faces, will most likely find a starting berth in February, or at least a place in the 22.

Owen Farrell

Harlequins prop Joe Marler brings his significant bulk and skill (and ridiculous haircut) into the fray. At 21, he again looks every bit an established player, though he admits he has lots yet to learn. With a secure berth in the Quins front row, he has managed to progress significantly and consistently through the season and deserves his squad place.

It's hard to assess the prospects of a largely new squad and new coach. Personally, I can only hope that the style of rugby that Lancaster will instill into his team will be an improvement on Martin Johnson's ethos, so it will be intriguing to guage England's efforts when they start their defence at Murrayfield. With that trip and a visit to Paris, I just feel they might struggle a little in this time of transition.

Key players for England will be the same ones they pinned their hopes on during the world cup but who never really shone; the likes of Foden, Ashton, Lawes and Hartley.

Prediction: Fourth

France

The French look to be going into the tournament as favourites following a turbulent but reasonably successful RWC in New Zealand, reaching the final and losing by only 1 point to the hosts (making it 3 appearances and 3 losses in RWC finals).

New coach Phillipe Saint-Andre looks to have a steadier head on him than his predecessor Marc Lievremont who tinkered constantly with his selections. Saint-Andre has stuck to the majority of those who performed at the RWC and added a couple of new faces, most notably the exciting young Clermont centre Wesley Fofana.

France didn't part with many of their players through retirement after the RWC, and the team will be very similar to the one that took to the field against New Zealand. Given that consistency and that they have 3 home games it is hard to see them doing anything other than triumph, although maybe not with a Grand Slam (thinking specifically of their trips to Wales and Scotland).

Morgan Parra

The key player for me is scrum half Morgan Parra. Still only 22, the Clermont nuumber 9 has proved to be the best in his position in the world at the moment. He packs every skill required of his demanding role with the added responsibility of goal kicking. He calls the shots, marshalls his forwards and distributes always when required, reading the game so comprehensively. When Clermont played Leicester in the Heineken Cup earlier this season, he showed England's Ben Youngs exactly how it should be done, and in his own back yard.

Prediction: First

Ireland

After a world cup that promised so much, particularly after topping their group with the win over Australia, the Irish were ultimately left disappointed after their quarter-final loss to the Welsh in New Zealand.

Declan Kidney has named a small squad that excludes the injured talisman and captain Brian O'Driscoll through injury. Munsterman Paul O'Connell will lead the team in BO'D's absence. Other notable exclusions include Luke Fitzgerald, once seen as the longterm replacement for O'Driscoll. The news that he has not even been selected for the Irish 'A' Wolfhounds team shows everyone that he has a lot of work to do to earn a place in Kidney's thoughts again.

Paul O'Connell

Domestically, the Irish are doing extremely well. 2011/12 is the first season in the Heineken Cup that 3 Irish teams have made the quarter-finals with Ulster joining the perennial winners Leinster and Munster. All 3 teams provide the vast majority of the Irish squad and given the way those clubs are playing at the moment, it would take a strong will to bet against the Irish this time around.

Ireland host Scotland, Wales and Italy where they will be fully expected to win all 3. The trips to Twickenham and the Stade de France will certainly prove to be trickier, but recent history shows that the Irish have had their fair share of results at those stadiums.

Prediction: Second

Italy

The Italians always had it to do when placed in a RWC group with Ireland and Australia. They held their own for the first half against the Aussies but got decimated in the first half by Ireland.

There seems to be no question that the overall quality of the Italians has increased following the introduction of Benetton Treviso and Aironi into the RaboDirect Pro12 league. With much of the Italian squad based either in these two teams or in the French Top 14, nearly every player is now exposed to top level European rugby on a consistent basis.

Italy recorded their most famous victory of the 2011 tournament over the French in Rome, and it's the French they face first up, this time in Paris. It's difficult to see any kind of upset, that really would be the biggest result in the history of the 6 Nations following the intorduction of the Italians in 2000.

Their key man, as it seems to be every year, is number 8 Sergio Parisse. With the sort of ability that would see him claim a place in any international team setup, Parisse carries much of the responsibility of his team and country's expectations. And yet he either seems to thrive on it or manages to block it out as he is the most consistent performer when he takes to the field.

Sergio Parisse

Italy will be targeting home wins against England and Scotland in the final weekend. In the past, they have pushed the English close at least once and following their result against the French last time out, they'll believe they can do it again. On the basis that Scotland will pick up a couple of results prior to the game with Italy, I see the Italians once again struggling at the bottom of the table, but they will almost certainly provide a shock result somewhere.

Prediction: Sixth

Scotland

It's fair to say that Scottish rugby is on something of a high at the moment. Edinburgh's success in topping their Heineken Cup group and earning themselves a home quarter-final against 4 time winners Toulouse is testament to Michael Bradley and the style of rugby they promote. Glasgow meanwhile are still harbouring ambitions of grabbing a league play-off place for the second time in 4 seasons as their consistency of success in the RaboDirect Pro12 league continues.

Once again, it these teams that provide the bulk of Andy Robinson's squad members. He has selected hooker Ross Ford to lead out the country during the tournament after his first choice for captain Kelly Brown was injured last weekend playing for Saracens at Treviso and will be out for at least 8 weeks. Ford will win his 54th cap against England on February 4th.

Ross Ford

Injuries are a key worry for Scotalnd in the final fortnight leading up to the first weekend, most notably to Robinson's first choice fly-half Ruaridh Jackson (thigh), former captain Al Kellock (respiratory infection) and props Alasdair Dickinson (shoulder) and Ed Kalman (calf). The prop positions particularly are a worry as Moray Low is already ruled out and Euan Murray chooses not to play on Sundays, ruling him out of 2 of the 5 games.

Scotland's successes in the tournament have traditionally come in the 'even' years when they host England and France and travel to Ireland, Wales and Italy. Should they get off to a great start against England, and away in Cardiff against the Welsh, who knows what could happen. Having a two week gap before and after the French game could also prove to be beneficial.

Scotland's shortcomings, highlighted particuarly at the recent world cup in New Zealand, include the inability to capitalise on the possession and territroy they make. Scoring tries has been a real struggle in previous seasons, and it's hard to see where they will come from this time around. With no notable strike players added to the core group from the World Cup (it should be noted that game changing Edinburgh winger Tim Visser qualifies for Scotland this June, a little late for this tournament), Scotland will again be relying on the tactical nouse of either Dan Parks, the inexperienced Duncan Weir and Jackson when he returns.

The burden of scoring tries in the backs will fall to the household names of Sean Lamont, Joe Ansbro, Max Evans and Nick de Luca.

I believe that Scotland have a chance of achieving a top 3 place this year, provided they can secure the crucial home victories against England and France, which they are well capable of doing. England go to Murrayfield on February 4th having not won there since 2004 (and only twice since 1998) and Scotland will want it to stay that way.

Prediction: Third

Wales

There is perhaps greater expectation than ever on the Welsh team following their heroics at the world cup which some them knocked out at the semi final by the French, and by a single point. Many Welsh fans will still be debating the red card given to inspirational young captain Sam Warburton that day, but there is no point dwelling on the past. The 6 Nations provides an opportunity to cement the form they showed during the world cup and even exact some revenge against the French.

Warren Gatland has selected a squad that has a healthy mix of experience and new talent, the possible excpetion being the inclusion of Gavin Henson who has arguably only bagged a place due to first choice number 12 Jamie Roberts being out injured. As discussed previously in The Skene Skrum, Wales have more than enough options to cover for Roberts without Henson.

Wales are one of the hardest teams to predict for tournaments. Who would have thought after the 2007 RWC where they crashed out of their group, they would come back to claim a Grand Slam in 2008? That came 3 years after the Grand Slam that seemed to come out of nowhere. Having had a good world cup this time around, who's to say that the Welsh won't flunk and be competing for the wooden spoon this year?

George North

The key player for me is George North.  The natural try scoring successor to Shane Williams, North enters the tournament after a very impressive world cup.  Along with fellow winger Leigh Halfpenny, the pair will be looked upon to bag a few tries this time round.

Wales have three home games this year, but travel to Dublin and Twickenham. The home fixture with Scotland threw up a thriller two years ago and will no doubt do so again. Wales have proved by winning the Grand Slams in '05 and '08 that they can beat all teams home and away, but can they do it this time? I have a sneaky feeling they may struggle this year with the likes of Jamie Roberts, Alun Wyn-Jones and Luke Charteris out and Gethin Jenkins an injury doubt.

Prediction: Fifth

Different Ways Of Investing In The Future

In the last week, both the Welsh Rugby Union (WRU) and Irish Rugby Union (IRFU) have released detailed plans for the future to introduce and nurture new talent within the national setups.  However, both Unions approach the problem of increasing grassroots participation in different ways but both from the top, at the professional level.

Comparing both Unions, they have similar numbers in terms of registered professional players and both countries have 4 professional outfits.  So what are the two adopted strategies?

Let's start with the Welsh.  With full support from the WRU, the Ospreys, Scarlets, Dragons and Blues have united to agree the terms of introducing a £3.5 million salary cap on each region, covering European squads only and excluding development players and academy costs, effective from the 2012/13 season. 

The WRU announced on their website that "...In removing the potential for dramatically increasing salary costs during a time of austerity for both businesses and individuals, the effect of a simple and focused salary cap will be to ensure balanced and sustainable costs...encourag[ing] further emphasis on the evolution of the development pathways".

Encouraging indeed.  There is a clear risk however to the strategy of having a salary cap; that the most valuable Welsh players playing in Wales will be lured elsewhere by higher salaries.  We have already seen the likes of Mike Phillips, James Hook and Lee Byrne moving to the continent to play for French teams in the Top 14 with the enticement of higher incomes.

The WRU intend to review the system on an annual basis to monitor it's effectiveness which strikes me as entirely sensible. The balance will be tricky to get right to avoid an exodus of top players.

Phillips, Byrne & Hook have all exiled to France

Meanwhile in Ireland, the IRFU have announced a series of adjustments of its player contract policy to further the development of Irish players and control the use of foreign players.  The plans, due to be introduced for the 2013/14 season, are geared towards increasing homegrown talent with the ultimate aim of improving the national team.

The clear difference between the two plans is that the Welsh agreement is one that has been generated by the clubs with the national Union in support whilst the Irish Union is the party taking control and imposing changes with apparently little or no consultation with Leinster, Munster, Ulster or Connacht.  This has rubbed certain people the wrong way, not least Leinster's foreign head coach Joe Schmidt. 

Schmidt has made no bones about his opposition to the IRFU revisions insisting that it is a knee-jerk reaction to Ireland's performance in the RWC in New Zealand, where they were knocked out by the Welsh.  He claims that the current setup is clearly sufficient and successful at bringing through young Irish talent in adequate numbers.

It begs the question of whether the roles would be reversed and the WRU would be the ones taking the lead and imposing sanctions on its regions had they had a poor World Cup. I suspect not, but it is worth considering.

Regardless, it strikes me that the Welsh system is the more sustainable longterm.  It is a considered and pragmatic solution to the times we live in, with the flexibility to be altered on an annual basis.  However, the attraction of the big money clubs outside of Wales and Ireland looks set to remain for the foreseeable future. 

Maybe there is a third option - one that has been adopted by New Zealand in recent years and is encouraged in Scotland: If you want to play for your national team, then you need to play for a club that belongs to that country.  Surely that is the ultimate incentive for any player?