Craig Levein To Face His Fate

by Dugald Skene

The SFA announced today that they are set to discuss the future of Scotland manager Craig Levein in the coming days following Scotland's 2-0 defeat to Belgium in Brussels on Tuesday night, the latest in a string of disappointing results for the national team. Keen not to make any knee jerk reactions, they released a statement including the following:

"It's important that we just reflect on the start to the campaign, sit down with the manager and with the board and actually look at what's happened over the last few matches and, in particular, what's happened in the last two games and then decide on our course of action.

"It's important that we actually sit down, look at the facts and then decide on the next steps."

Craig Levein's days as Scotland coach may be numbered

So what are the facts? 

Levein's record in competitive games is shocking, achieving only a 36.1% win rate (43.5% for all games), far poorer than the much maligned Berti Vogts (48.8%) and the short lived term of George Burley (42%). 

Whether the causes of this poor form can be blamed entirely on Levein is the subject of much debate, but he certainly has to accept that a lot of that blame does fall at his feet.  With a similar, if not more talented group of players available to him than in recent years, he has failed to find a preferred, consistent and successful starting XI. 

In this most recent campaign, his decision to play with one man (Kenny Miller) up front in the opening two games, both at Hampden, was an immediate sign of painful pragmatism that quickly backfired on Levein, achieving a disappointing 2 points from 2 games. 

Although an improvement on the crippling 4-6-0 formation fielded against the Czech Republic in the previous campaign for Euro 2012 qualification, this immediately forced him and the Scotland team on to the back foot in the group, in turn making the manager swallow his pride and invite the outcast and in form Sunderland striker Stephen Fletcher back into the squad. Other players who have been in form for their clubs but not recognised by Levein made it back into the fray, including Celtic playmaker Kris Commons. 

His decision to drop Paul Dixon at left back, one of Scotland's better players in the first 2 games for Southampton's Danny Fox only added to the growing list of odd decisions made throughout his tenure.

Levein also used the long awaited return from illness of midfielder and captain Darren Fletcher to mask over the inconsistencies of selection and strategy.

For me, Levein has had his chance. 3 years and 23 games has provided ample opportunity to cement an ethos, an ethic and a successful record. Never fully embraced by the tartan faithful, he has arguably always been facing an uphill struggle, but that shouldn't deter from the fact that he has not fulfilled his own ambition and the nations expectation to win football games when it matters.

Levein must go, and the SFA need to see this as a black and white issue. Whatever their deliberation, it needs to be quick and decisive. Should he go, the challenge of recruiting a new manager must be made quickly, but not rashly - the next round of qualifying matches doesn't come around until March. I highly doubt that Craig Levein will be at the helm come the spring.

Scotland Draw Again To Leave Uphill Battle

by Dugald Skene

Scotland have come away from their Hampden double header with only 2 points garnered from matches against opposition that they should be beating at home.  Serbia and Macedonia aren't the strongest in the group, and with Belgium and Croatia still to come, Scotland have it all to do in Group A.

Shaun Maloney competes for the ball in an

often outgunned Scottish midfield

Many of the questions over the performance, attitude and execution centre on manager Craig Levein. His 4-1-4-1 formation at home is negative, despite his insistence that 3 of the midfield 4 are attack minded players. Lone striker Kenny Miller isn't the chase-anything player he was and clearly struggled. Never blessed with the best first touch, he is rendered redundant when he has his back to goal and only poses any kind of  threat when the ball is played ahead of him.

The strategy to revert to a standard 4-4-2 only when under the cosh seems like immature management, especially after it happened in the first game against Serbia.  Levein will no doubt defend himself by saying that the decision to throw on Jordan Rhodes came 17 minutes earlier than it did on Saturday, but it doesn't defend the decision to play the starting formation to begin with.

Scotland now have time to reflect on their two draws.  The calls to fire Levein may be premature, but he needs to affect the mentality currently in place in the squad and coaching staff.  Some would argue he had his chance during the last qualifying campaign and that this was the time to adopt the lessons learnt then.

Scotland may only be 2 points behind Serbia, Belgium and Croatia, the latter two of which drew on Tuesday night, but there is such an emphasis to win at home particularly against those around you in the group. Put it this way; I'd rather have Macedonia's single point having played two away games than Scotland's brace after two home games.

Not only will Scotland have to rely on their unreliable away form, but more likely on the results of others in the group. Nothing is impossible, and all hope is not lost, but Scotland have got off to a poor start, and they'll need to pick it up if they harbour any aspirations to qualify for Brazil.  Next up, Wales.

Dundee Invited Back To SPL

by Dugald Skene

Is the dust finally starting to settle on the Newco debacle at the club formerly known as Rangers?

Let’s not hold our breaths.

Firstly, the Scottish Football League’s vote to condemn the Newco to the Scottish third division is NOT a punishment for the new club, it is merely due process.  Any other outcome would have been a gross injustice to other teams who have fallen to the same fate, no matter how small they are in comparison to the Glasgow club.

Secondly, the SPL have yet to reveal their findings and resultant penalties (if any) on the EBT system employed at Rangers for the best part of a decade.  I’m not going to go into the system, not least because I don’t have the firmest grip on it, but to me, any club that pays 53 of its employees from a fund adopting ludicrous tax loop holes is at a fundamental level terrible business, and should be punished as such.  What those sanctions are, we will surely find out soon enough. 

That’s my two pennies worth.

So why start blogging now about an issue that has gone on for months?  Well, it’s not all about Rangers or their new identity.  Their demise has also affected a number of other Scottish clubs, both now and will no doubt continue to in ways we may not be fully aware of yet.

It was announced yesterday that Dundee Football Club have been invited to be the ones filling the void from the departed Rangers, fulfilling the role of ‘Club 12’ in the 2012/13 fixture list.  Simple, right? Not quite, not least because of the way it affects that fixture list.  With the way it has currently been set out, Dundee would be playing at home at the same time as city rivals Dundee United on 9 occasions, meaning the SPL will have to re-jig a number of the fixtures causing as few ripple effects to the timetable as possible.

Dens Park is set to host SPL fixtures again next season

I don’t disagree with the decision to admit Dundee to the league.  Their efforts on the pitch in the first division both last term and the season before, having suffered a 20 point deficit for entering administration for the second time, are testament to a real resolve at a club that has had to survive with the scarcest of resources.  Their reward of being admitted to the SPL is well deserved, in a purely footballing sense.

How much they and the rest of the SPL clubs profit in the coming season depends greatly on the TV deal that the SPL strikes with Sky and ESPN. With arguably their ‘stand out’ fixture of Celtic taking on their Glasgow neighbours (whichever guise you take them as) not on the cards for at least another 3 years (by which time the fixture may not be the rivalry many assume), many predict a huge cut in the TV money coming into the league.  SPL Chief Executive Neil Doncaster has remained tight lipped about any deal, but has implied that it will be a case of damage limitation.  Both Sky and ESPN were due to sign a £80 million five year deal, but still have a £13 million annual contract to run for the coming season which may or may not be renegotiated.

So there are still a huge number of things to come out yet about the state of the league, the numbers of clubs and fixtures within it and the money coming in.  What’s almost certain is that Dundee are coming into a league that won’t have nearly as much money as it has the last time they enjoyed premier league football.