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Wednesday 22 February 2012

Scotland vs France Preview

Venue: Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh
Date: Sunday, 26 February
Kick-off: 1500 GMT

So after the first interval break, we steam ahead to the third round of the 2012 RBS 6 Nations and the middle weekend throws up some intriguing contests all over again.

On Sunday, the winless Scots take on the French who haven't played for 3 weeks since the Italy game in Paris because their match with the Irish was called off at the eleventh hour because of a frozen pitch.  Can we read anything into that? Probably not.  What it doesn't give Scotland is the match video that would have been so useful in the lead up to this weekend's game.

Their win over Italy was enough to blow some cobwebs away, but was not so demanding as to really push them.  Saint-Andre will have been pleased with the forwards display and the execution from the backs when the chances were there.  What is clear about that game is that Italy didn't perform to their potential, all the more obvious after seeing their performance against England in Rome.

The French will field the same side that was due to face Ireland last weekend. Dmitri Yachvili is still out with a back problem, so Morgan Parra will start with Francois Trinh-Duc at 10.  The consistency in team selection is so important for any team, but the French have no reason to change a winning formula.  they will come to Edinburgh as clear favourites, but they will need their wits about them against a Scotland team that has shown signs of promise over the last 2 rounds without getting the results.

For Scotland, their self-destructive tendencies have contributed to their losses so far.  Certainly in the case of the English game, they lost it rather than England winning it, butchering some chances that would have seen them win reasonably comfortably.

Look beyond that initial layer of frustration, and it is clear to see the positive elements of play that Andy Robinson and the players have been keen to focus on in the two week break.  The defence has been excellent for the most part, the lineout has been superior in both games and the back row play at the breakdown has been a step beyond where it was at the World Cup.

Despite only scoring 1 try, the creation of chances is there.  The first 80% is great, it's the final 20% that has let the team down.

Scotland have been excellent at many things, but they will have to be the bare minimum requirement as they face a French team that has the potential to make it a very uncomfortable afternoon for Scotland.  The French lineout will be very good and the new back row combination for Scotland will never have faced a unit of the likes of Picamoles, Harinordoquy and the rucking machine that is Thierry Dusautoir.

The team news for Scotland is significant and I think positive with changes at centre where Lamont has been moved out to 13 with the re-introduction of Graeme Morrison into the 12 position, meaning a very physical midfield and a drop down to the bench for Nick de Luca. The returning Ruaridh Jackson will have to wait for his return to the international fold as Laidlaw starts and Weir holds on to his place on the bench. Stuart Hogg gets his first start and displaces Rory Lamont from the full back position to take Max Evans' place on the wing. Crucially, there is a swap at scrum half where Cusiter will warm the bench and Blair starts. I think both have good impact from the bench and I expect to see the change after around 50 minutes.

In the forwards, Robinson's hand has been forced slightly with the injuries to Kelly Brown and Al Strokosch meaning John Barclay will get his first start of the tournament at blindside and Richie Vernon taking the supporting role on the bench.  Otherwise, the settled pack is unchanged from the Wales game.

Morrison returns to the Scottish midfield

The spotlight will be firmly focussed on the Scottish backline, who will be looking to move on from the Welsh debacle and finish some of the chances they know the team can create.  Lee Jones has yet to show his killer instinct, but may get to run a bit as the games with the French tend to open up a bit (remember last year when Scotland scored 3 tries in Paris?).  Stuart Hogg will have the chance to build on his impressive debut in Cardiff and will also benefit from broken play.

I can't help but think that it all just has to click for Scotland at some point.  Will it be this weekend?  Why not.  The French will look to spread the ball and as mentioned, they can be ruthless when their minds are in the game.  We have also seen them lose concentration and create opportunities for opposition teams (thinking specifically of the RWC where they lost to Tonga).

Scotland can do it, but they can't rely on lapses in French concentration to pull it off.  They will need to continue to create and carve out the opportunities thay have done to date but only convert them much better.  Only.

Scotland:
15. S Hogg, 14. R Lamont, 13. S Lamont, 12. G Morrison, 11. L Jones, 10. G Laidlaw, 9. M Blair, 1. A Jacobsen, 2. R Ford (c), 3. G Cross, 4. R Gray, 5. J Hamilton, 6. J Barclay, 7. R Rennie, 8. D Denton

Bench: 16. S Lawson, 17. E Kalman, 18. A Kellock, 19. R Vernon, 20. C Cusiter, 21. D Weir, 22. N de Luca

France:

15. M Medard, 14. V Clerc, 13. A Rougerie, 12. W Fofana, 11. J Malzieu, 10. F Trinh-Duc, 9. M Parra, 1. JB Poux, 2. D Szarzewski, 3. N Mas, 4. P Pape, 5. Y Maestri, 6. T Dusautoir (c), 7. I Harinordoquy, 8. L Picamoles

Bench: 16. W Servat, 17. V Debaty, 18. L Nallet, 19. J Bonnaire, 20. J Dupuy, 21. L Beauxis, 22. M Mermoz.

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