Italy vs Scotland Preview

Venue: Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Date: Saturday, 17 March
Kick-off: 1230 GMT

by Dugald Skene

More often than not, it has been Scotland and Italy who have been contesting their own little battle to avoid walking off with the RBS 6 Nations wooden spoon while the other 4 teams compete for the more esteemed championship title.  Not since the dawn of the 6 Nations in 2000 have Scotland and Italy threatened with a charge for the title while England, France, Ireland and Wales have each one the title in the last 4 years, three of them with Grand Slams.

Regrettably, this year is no different and for the fifth time in 13 years, and second year running, the organisers have pitted Scotland and Italy together on the final day to scrap for their tournament dignity.

These games have always tended to be very close with only the occasional runaway winner, most notably the storming performance by Italy at Murrayfield in 2007.  This year throws up a new dimension and one that heavily favours the Italians – a 72,000 strong stadium filled mostly with home supporters.

There will no doubt be the usual similes and metaphors of gladiators fighting for their lives in the Coliseum, pitting themselves man against man, team against team.  The fact is, this will be a titanic battle and could prove to be one of the best games of the tournament. 

Whatever each team’s aspirations were prior to the start of the tournament, both will have singled this game out as a must win.  As has been the case so often, both teams have ended up coming into the match winless from four games and now that win is not just a must but an absolute necessity.

Italy have swapped the Stadio Flaminio with the

72,000 seat Stadio Olimpico in 2012

The Italians with home advantage will want to show everyone what they are about and that any team coming to Rome will face the toughest of battles.  They spent the first 10 years in the tournament looking to improve their team and gain some sort of consistency.  In the process, they picked up some wins against Scotland and Wales, but they were also more often than not at the tail end of a hiding.  Things are different now, and gone are the days when the Italians get a regular thumping, especially in Rome.  Victory over the French last year was a result that was coming, and few grudged the Italians for it and many were glad it wasn’t them.

What’s intriguing about this fixture is that both teams will be looking to score tries.  Scotland are already doing better than most recent years with 4 tries on the board whilst Italy have the capabilities to capitalise on mistakes, emphasised in their clash with England.

With Martin Castrogiovanni back, the Italian scrum is far superior and so Scotland will want to minimise the amount of scrum time as much as possible.  A more open and broken game will suit the Scots more but they'll have to watch out if they want quick ball as I've been impressed not only with the excellent Sergio Parisse, but the performances of Alessandro Zanni who has been his captain’s equal at the breakdown. 

The Italian backline will be looking to flex their muscle having not really shone since their last home game against England when new additions Giovanbattista Venditti and Tommaso Benvenuti impressed so much.  There is plenty of pace and experience with veterans like Andrea Masi and Gonzalo Canale to trouble Scotland.

Scotland have 5 excellent ball carriers in the pack with captain Ross Ford, Richie Gray, John Barclay, David Denton and Ross Rennie providing most of the positive elements of Scotland’s play through the tournament so far.  Italy will have watched the Irish go to town on the Scots and will look to replicate many of the methods that slowed Barclay, Ford and Rennie down so much in that game.

In the backs, Scotland will again see opportunities to expose the Italians and will look to the likes of Max Evans and Stuart Hogg to stretch their legs in attack.  Hogg particularly has a natural talent to enter the back line from full back at the opportune time, creating overlaps and making ground.  During his debut against the Welsh, he was the one Scottish back who made significant yards beyond the gain line with direct running and both Andy Robinson and the player himself will want to repeat that success.

Perhaps the one surprise in the team lineup is the inclusion of Greig Laidlaw.  For the first time against Ireland, Laidlaw’s weaknesses were exposed, particularly his kicking where he has never been blessed with a booming boot.  So it surprises me that with such a successful lineout in both defence and attack for Scotland, someone with the kicking prowess of Duncan Weir hasn’t been selected to the 22.

I think on the whole, Scotland will nick this one, but as has been the case in the majority of matches so far in the 2012 6 Nations, it's going to be tight.  I hope Laidlaw has his kicking boots on becasue this one will come down to small margins.  Scotland will look to open the game out and tire the Italians and it could prove for a more expansive game than most expect.  It may only be the hors d'ouevres of the day's rugby but it will set up nicely a day of fixtures that promise to deliver so much.

Italy:

15. A Masi, 14. G Venditti, 13. T Benvenuti, 12. G Canale, 11. M Bergamasco, 10. K Burton, 9. E Gori, 1. A Lo Cicero, 2. L Ghiraldini (c), 3. M Castrogiovanni, 4. Q Geldenhuys, 5.  M Bortolami, 6. A Zanni, 7. R Barbieri, 8. S Parisse (c)

Bench: 16. T D'Alpici, 17. L Cittadini, 18. J Furno, 19. S Favaro, 20. M Vosawai, 21. T Botes, 22. G Toniolatti

Scotland:

15. S Hogg, 14. M Evans, 13. N de Luca, 12. G Morrison, 11. S Lamont, 10. G Laidlaw, 9. M Blair, 1. A Jacobsen, 2. R Ford (c), 3. G Cross, 4. R Gray, 5. J Hamilton, 6. J Barclay, 7. R Rennie, 8. D Denton

Bench: 16. S Lawson, 17. E Murray, 18. A Kellock, 19. R Vernon, 20. C Cusiter, 21. R Jackson, 22. J Cuthbert