Date: Saturday, 17 March
Kick-off: 1445 GMT
by Dugald Skene
So, this is it, the decider. Unless there are two freakish results that see Wales and Ireland lose by around 20 points each, Wales have the championship covered. But despite what the players have being saying the last fortnight, all that people in Wales and elsewhere have been talking about is the big one. The grand slam.
Should Wales beat France on Saturday, they will join the French as being 3 times 6 Nations grand slam winners, a huge achievement given the size of the country and relative size of the player pool available to them.
It would also mean that the Welsh have a 100% record - 3 titles, 3 grand slams. That’s better than France who have a 60% grand slam success rate, or England who only have a 25% success rate. Many would argue that grand slams aren’t everything, and they’re right, but for a nation as especially rugby daft as Wales, it makes it all the sweeter.
Phillipe Saint-Andre has selected a defensive line up to compete with the size of the Welsh backline. The impressive Wesley Fofana, who is on to set a 6 Nations record of scoring a try in each of the 5 games, has been moved out on to the wing while bulky centre Florien Fritz comes in at 12 for his first appearance in this year’s tournament. With Vincent Clerc out injured and Julien Malzieu dropped, Alexis Palisson has leap frogged Maxime Mermoz to the starting lineup. Despite a horrible showing against England, the massively overrated Clement Poitrenaud retains his place at full back.
Up front, all three members of the impressive French back row have recovered from knocks sustained against England. The changes have come up front where William Servat, arguably the best hooker in world rugby, will make his final start before retiring from international rugby after the tournament. Alongside him, David Attoub comes in for the inexplicably dropped Nicolas Mas, who has been the best scrummaging prop so far in the tournament.
So what to make of these changes? It’s clearly thought by Saint-Andre that Wesley Fofana came off second best against Barritt and Tuilagi last week, and so holds little hope the newcomer will stand a better chance against the powerful Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies. The selection of Fritz is defensively minded, but could actually play into Wales’ hands.
The Welsh squad is about as strong as could be hoped for. Captain Sam Warburton has recovered from knee trouble to start at openside and will have the chance to get a full 80 minutes against the French after his personal disappointment in the RWC semi-final.
There is also an opportunity for 3 players, Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones and substitute Ryan Jones to join an esteemed and short list of Welsh players to have won 3 grand slams.
The consistency of Wales' line-up is one of their strongest factors, and backed up with one of the strongest benches in the championship they have come through the tournament relatively unscathed. Gatland has heaped praise on the likes of Dan Lydiate who has been one of the quieter performers but influential on the pitch, particularly in Sam Warburton's absence. Ian Evans has also excelled at the heart of a dynamic pack.
In the backs, Rhys Priestland has done no more than necessary. He hasn't shone like he did at the RWC other than flashes of brilliance against Ireland in the opening weekend. Jonathan Davies has grown into the team over the past 12 months and now forms part of one of the strongest centre pairings in world rugby with Jamie Roberts.
George North has been unstoppable, breaking more tackles than any other player in the tournament and Alex Cuthbert has been going from strength to strength with each game.
But the star of the show for Wales has been Leigh Halfpenny. Having started his international career on the wing, Halfpenny has now made the full back position his own having worked hard on his spacial awareness and positional responsibilities. He has taken the kicking duties in his stride and with a couple of tries under his belt, is the tournaments highest scoring player.
Given the form of each team coming into this final weekend, it's hard to see Wales losing. But then, they are playing the French. Of all teams in world rugby, they are the most unpredictable and anything can happen. Away from home and with nothing to lose, they present a very real danger for Wales.
I predict a Welsh win and grand slam, but it won't be an easy one for them. The French have had their successes at the Millennium Stadium in the past (most notably the RWC 2007 QF win over the All Blacks) and will look to upset the odds. It should be a an absolute cracker!
Wales:
15. L Halfpenny, 14. A Cuthbert, 13. J Davies, 12. J Roberts, 11. G North, 10. R Priestland , 9. M Phillips, 1. G Jenkins, 2. M Rees, 3. A Jones, 4. A Wyn-Jones, 5. I Evans, 6. D Lydiate, 7. S Warburton, 8. T Faletau
Bench: 16. K Owens, 17. P James, 18. L Charteris, 19. R Jones, 20. L Williams, 21. J Hook, 22. S Williams
France:
15. C Poitrenaud, 14. W Fofana, 13. A Rougerie, 12. F Fritz, 11. A Palisson, 10. L Beauxis, 9. D Yachvili, 1. JB Poux, 2. W Servat, 3. D Attoub 4. P Pape, 5. Y Maestri, 6. T Dusautoir (c), 7. J Bonnaire, 8. I Harinoroquy
Bench: 16. D Szarzewski, 17. V Debaty, 18. J Pierre, 19. L Picamoles, 20. M Parra, 21. F Trinh-Duc, 22. J-M Buttin.
The Welsh squad is about as strong as could be hoped for. Captain Sam Warburton has recovered from knee trouble to start at openside and will have the chance to get a full 80 minutes against the French after his personal disappointment in the RWC semi-final.
Captain Sam Warburton returns to the Welsh line-up
There is also an opportunity for 3 players, Gethin Jenkins, Adam Jones and substitute Ryan Jones to join an esteemed and short list of Welsh players to have won 3 grand slams.
The consistency of Wales' line-up is one of their strongest factors, and backed up with one of the strongest benches in the championship they have come through the tournament relatively unscathed. Gatland has heaped praise on the likes of Dan Lydiate who has been one of the quieter performers but influential on the pitch, particularly in Sam Warburton's absence. Ian Evans has also excelled at the heart of a dynamic pack.
In the backs, Rhys Priestland has done no more than necessary. He hasn't shone like he did at the RWC other than flashes of brilliance against Ireland in the opening weekend. Jonathan Davies has grown into the team over the past 12 months and now forms part of one of the strongest centre pairings in world rugby with Jamie Roberts.
George North has been unstoppable, breaking more tackles than any other player in the tournament and Alex Cuthbert has been going from strength to strength with each game.
But the star of the show for Wales has been Leigh Halfpenny. Having started his international career on the wing, Halfpenny has now made the full back position his own having worked hard on his spacial awareness and positional responsibilities. He has taken the kicking duties in his stride and with a couple of tries under his belt, is the tournaments highest scoring player.
Given the form of each team coming into this final weekend, it's hard to see Wales losing. But then, they are playing the French. Of all teams in world rugby, they are the most unpredictable and anything can happen. Away from home and with nothing to lose, they present a very real danger for Wales.
I predict a Welsh win and grand slam, but it won't be an easy one for them. The French have had their successes at the Millennium Stadium in the past (most notably the RWC 2007 QF win over the All Blacks) and will look to upset the odds. It should be a an absolute cracker!
Wales:
15. L Halfpenny, 14. A Cuthbert, 13. J Davies, 12. J Roberts, 11. G North, 10. R Priestland , 9. M Phillips, 1. G Jenkins, 2. M Rees, 3. A Jones, 4. A Wyn-Jones, 5. I Evans, 6. D Lydiate, 7. S Warburton, 8. T Faletau
Bench: 16. K Owens, 17. P James, 18. L Charteris, 19. R Jones, 20. L Williams, 21. J Hook, 22. S Williams
France:
15. C Poitrenaud, 14. W Fofana, 13. A Rougerie, 12. F Fritz, 11. A Palisson, 10. L Beauxis, 9. D Yachvili, 1. JB Poux, 2. W Servat, 3. D Attoub 4. P Pape, 5. Y Maestri, 6. T Dusautoir (c), 7. J Bonnaire, 8. I Harinoroquy
Bench: 16. D Szarzewski, 17. V Debaty, 18. J Pierre, 19. L Picamoles, 20. M Parra, 21. F Trinh-Duc, 22. J-M Buttin.
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