Here we go again.
The 2014 6 nations seems to promise the usual thrills and spills, but there is a decided air of uncertainty going around as to who will take the championship crown. The English are well backed, and the Irish and French also have good support following the success of the provincial and top 14 teams in this year's Heineken Cup.
Unfortunately as a Scotland fan, there isn't much promise beyond the usual expectations, but being an 'even' year, Scotland do host the English and French at Murrayfield and on their day, have the ability to throw a spanner in the works.
It seems almost clichéd to say that the Italians are an ever-improving force, and there's no doubt they will be eyeing the fifth placed spot at the very least, especially as they host Scotland in week 4 and have always played strongly against England in Rome in recent years.
Wales are perhaps the biggest unknown, simply down to who is fit and who isn't. Captain Sam Warburton has already been announced as being a substitute for the opening salvo against Italy at the Millennium, and Warren Gatland will have a few holes to fill elsewhere. With 3 games at home though, they can't be discounted as they look to claim their third championship on the spin.
In most respects, predictions are somewhat pointless and generally founded on the form of individual players rather than the teams. The last time each nation played was in November, and while not that long ago, autumn test form is rarely a barometer for 6 Nations success - just look at France last year.
Can Wales make it 3 in a row?
That said, the final table is something to muse, so why not?
First off, I don't believe there will be a grand slam winner this year. The fixtures are such that everybody has tough away days that some will win and some won't. I see Wales losing at Twickenham, but Ireland triumphing. On the reverse, I can see Wales winning in France where they have a wonderful record but France beating Ireland in what could well be a championship decider on March 15th in Paris.
Scotland have always been good value in Wales, most notably in 2010 where they suffered a heart aching self destruction to lose in the final seconds. Is 2014 there year to win in Cardiff? The English in turn have only won once at Murrayfield since 2004. Scotland always raise their game for the arrival of the English.
So no, there won't be a grand slam this year - that is probably my most confident prediction. The winner however, is between France, Ireland and England. While Ireland have an opportunity to get a strong start under their belts with 2 home games against Scotland and Wales, the French host the English in week once in a game that could define the rest of the tournament. England played so well in France 2 years ago to win, but I don't see that bit of history repeating itself this year. The French clubs have played so well in European competition so far this year, and the French contingents of each seem to be gaining form as their clubs do.
For me, I think the French will win the tournament. There is no lack of talent and ability to run away with the 6 Nations on an annual basis for France, it always seems to come down to attitude and team selection. The former should be sharpened following last year's awful showing, so it's down to the combinations that take to the field.
Ireland will come second this year. The fixtures suit them with 2 home games up first and a trip to Twickenham with 2 weeks break either side in the middle, a game I fancy them for. Ireland will go to Paris on Super Saturday looking for a Grand Slam but will come up short, and France will sneak off with the trophy from under their noses.
With predicted losses to the French and Irish, I see the English winning their other fixtures. Scotland away and Wales at home will be tough affairs, and I admit I would dearly love to see them lose both, but I think they are starting to come good, achieving a consistency in both form and selection under Lancaster now that spells out a clear focus on 2015.
My heart says Scotland will win in both Italy and Wales, two games where they will be undoubted underdogs. They will finish fourth. My head fears for the worst.
Wales will come in fifth and Italy will round off the group, but I have to stress not because they are perceived as the whipping boys anymore (not that a Scotland fan could ever claim they were).
It's going to be a fascinating tournament, and for once I think all the hyperbole from the head coaches ahead of the opening weekend may well ring true. While none of them are bigging up their own team, at least 4 of them will be confident of going home with the crown. For that reason alone, all of them will fall short of the grand slam.
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