Loss to Wales The Culmination Of A Turbulent 6 Nations For Scotland

by Dugald Skene

The 2014 6 Nations tournament will likely go down as the most turbulent for both the Scotland team and fans since the inaugural tournament in 2000, and ultimately, one to forget.

After a misleading third place finish last year, a result that was more down to the misfortune and bad form of others than the Scots own good form, this year is has been the Scottish players and coaching staff, led by Scott Johnson, who have contributed significantly to their own downfall.

Between the poor opening display in Dublin and the final humiliation against Wales last Saturday there was a toothless Calcutta Cup performance, a rare win in Rome and a spirited game against the French which slipped away from the Scots in the second half due to poor game management and match time decision making.

So more downs than ups, for sure, but in an effort to salvage some positives from the tournament by the end of this blog, the negatives first need to be looked at, starting with Saturday's loss to Wales.

Let's be clear, Scotland didn't lose because Stuart Hogg got sent off.  It was clear from watching both teams before Hogg saw red that the Welsh were superior in most departments, and far more clinical. With 15 against 15, Wales would still have won the game convincingly, by around 25 points in my opinion.  The eventual 48 point difference at the final whistle was down to Wales scoring 4 tries that wouldn't likely have materialised with Hogg on the field, either by Hogg directly affecting the play or by his presence preventing Wales initiating the counter attacking moves in the first place.

Scotland were poor. Dougie Fife on his debut had a terrible game, particularly defensively. His failure to take the high ball from Liam Williams that led to George North's first try, his missed tackle on Jonathan Davies in the lead up to Jamie Roberts' try and finally his defensive positioning, failing to stick to the outside man George North as he ran in for his second, all crucial mistakes at crucial times for Scotland.

Greig Laidlaw looked very laboured all over the pitch, and his eventual replacement Chris Cusiter proved once again in this tournament that he is the better scrum half of the two, providing more impetus and quicker ball from which to build.

Wales outmuscled Scotland all over the pitch

Richie Gray was ineffectual for the duration, Al Strokosch didn't have the physical impact against the gnarly Welsh back row that we were all looking for.  He looked caught a little short following Kelly Brown's early injury.  Max Evans showed endeavour but failed to back it up with poor execution and his physicality was all too often trumped by the huge Welsh back line. Duncan Weir, who I maintain is the best option available for Scotland at 10, had a poor game, either kicking too long or not finding his touch on too many occasions.

Stuart Hogg's red card in the 23rd minute was a turning point, but it wasn't the cause of the poor performance and loss. Whatever you may think about the decision, it can't really be debated.  There's no way Hogg should have left the ground to make the hit on Biggar.  Had he just kept running and allowed his momentum to carry him into the Welsh 10, it would have been a yellow at worst.  The fact he demonstrated intent by jumping and leading with the shoulder makes it a clear decision.

Individuals aside, the team just didn't look coherent. The missed tackles racked up through the course of the game and Wales danced through the defensive line way too often.  Jamie Roberts had his best game of the tournament, making line break after line break and capping it off with a try at the end of the first half.

In a certain respect, I'm perversely pleased that Scotland were once again brought down so convincingly in this tournament.  Following the defeat to the English where Scotland failed to score a single point at home for the second time this season, it seemed the subsequent fortnight was spent by the media looking at the state of Scottish Rugby, and even the chief BBC sports writer Tom Fordyce wrote a lengthy piece on the subject having travelled to the Borders to talk about the drying up of talent from the area.  The spotlight was on Scotland and it needed to be. That focus disappeared with a win in Italy. Suddenly Scotland were fine, they had won there for the first time since 2006 and all was rosy again.

I am the first to acknowledge that having the National team winning is probably the single biggest motivator for youngsters taking up the game and continuing to play, but that win seemed only to serve the SRU, who didn't cover themselves in glory following the Calcutta Cup defeat. Beating Italy diverted attention from them and they were no doubt pleased to see that particular crack papered over.  The loss to Wales, and the nature of it, will hopefully serve to bring some of that focus back to the condition of the Scottish game, and highlight the inherent failures with the system, not least the number of Scottish players registered and playing, but the apparent bottleneck for progress of only having two professional teams each with over 50 players on their books.

Back to the national teams performances, and what is hard to fathom for the Scotland fans is the lack of consistency. Being drubbed at home by the English, then winning it Italy before pushing France close at Murrayfield doesn't show much of anything to the Scotland faithful 18 months from a World Cup.

Saturday's game marked the end of Johnson's tenure as Head Coach.

He now moves on to his new position of Director of Rugby

What does seem clear is that a desire for consistency in performance starts with consistency in selection (look at England in this tournament), and Scott Johnson's decision making in this regard often beggared belief.  Using captain Kelly Brown as the apparent scapegoat for a poor team performance in Dublin and dropping him entirely for two games was bizarre. When you compare the two home games, only 3 of the forwards that started against England also started against France - Ryan Grant, Jim Hamilton and David Denton.  The inability to strike a balance in all 3 elements of the pack proved too much for Johnson. 5 props, 3 hookers, 4 second row players and 6 back rowers were used in various combinations over the tournament.

The story is slightly different in the backs, where if anything, the consistency in selection actually was one of the highlights for Scotland.  The centre pairing of Matt Scott and Alex Dunbar continued from where they last left off on tour in South Africa last summer where they were both excellent. There's no doubt that Scott's injury during the Autumn tests was a massive blow for Scotland and this tournament has gone a long way to showing that these two are the pair that could be in place for Scotland for a long time to come.

All that said, the backs only combined to score 4 tries in the whole tournament, (none were scored by forwards), proving that that particular age-old problem still lingers for Scotland. In fact, 2014 marked a new low as Scotland came 6 points short of achieving their previous lowest tournament points total. The 47 points amassed in 5 games wouldn't have been enough to see off Wales on Saturday.

Duncan Weir's inclusion in the starting line up in Dublin, and his continued presence, has divided opinion amongst fans.  As I've iterated many times here, I am a fan and see him as the future for Scotland, certainly beyond the next world cup. His selection combined with the non-selection of any other recognised fly half specialist seems to indicate that the coaching staff (influenced or not by the prospective head coach Vern Cotter) agree with this.  I think they're right.

Weir has been somewhat thrust into the role.  His lack of international experience and lack of playing time this season meant he was the rabbit in the proverbial headlights coming into the Ireland game. He has been up and down throughout, his obvious highlight being the winning drop goal against Italy while his low was throwing the intercepted pass that led to an Huget try for France.  On reflection, he will realise the experience has been nothing but valuable and I hope for him that he uses that to kick on.

Sean Lamont is ageing and will be lucky to make the world cup. Sean Maitland was unlucky to get injured in the opening game, but Tommy Seymour came in to good effect in his absence. As already mentioned, Dougie Fife will have better days in a Scotland shirt, it's a shame he will have to wait a few months to right some of those wrongs.

Scotland's backs have competed well but executed poorly

throughout the 6 Nations

So what next? The anticipation of Vern Cotter's arrival in Scotland is palpable amongst fans. The expectation will likely be sky high given Cotter's CV, but he has one hell of a job to do.  While Johnson has sought to deepen the pool of international quality players by blooding many over his tenure, Vern Cotter requires to expand, find a consistency and build some confidence. Scotland are in with a very good shout of qualifying from their world cup group next year but before that, there are games in North and South America, South Africa and of course next years 6 Nations to deal with.

While Cotter has had to play with what he wants at Clermont Auvergne, he'll need to be satisfied with playing with what he's got at Scotland.  There is talk of Scott Johnson being retained as attack/backs coach as a second string to his role of Director of Rugby but this sounds illogical to me.  As David Ferguson of the Scotsman wrote this week, Johnson has genuine expertise and experience to help develop the structure of the game in Scotland, he does not need to be on the front line coaching players at the same time.

Cotter needs to be afforded the resources he needs to get the job he envisages done - the SRU need to back him up.  At the same time, the structure of the game in Scotland needs to be addressed, starting with the addition of one, if not two new professional teams.  The SRU are currently working on their comprehensive 6 Nations review that will see investment into creating four new academies around Scotland to reflect the four district system of old. Scott Johnson will oversee this creation and will lead the nurturing process.

It's no secret that Scotland are being left behind, it's a yarn that is spun at this time every year following what is more often than not a disappointing 6 Nations tournament. This year is no different, but there does seem to be more of a public reaction to Scotland's shortcomings, and resultantly an effort by the SRU to do something about it. There is a great deal of work to do, and a long road to wind for Scotland. Fans will be hoping Vern Cotter's arrival is a catalyst to exiting this 15 year long slump. Only time will tell.

Michael Sam Coming Out Is Seminal Moment For NFL

by Dugald Skene

The news of top defensive draft prospect Michael Sam coming out as gay just weeks before the NFL combine has dominated the headlines on the American sports networks.

Never before has a currently active NFL player come out, and yet Sam has chosen to do it before he has even entered the league.

Both current and former players have emerged in unanimous support of Sam and his decision to announce his sexuality, but much of the debate has been over the timing of the announcement.

The NFL released a statement on Monday in support of Sam, stating "We admire Michael Sam's honesty and courage. Michael is a football player.  Any player with ability and determination can succeed in the NFL. We look forward to welcoming and supporting Michael Sam in 2014"

Michael Sam will enter the 2014 NFL Draft in May

Let's be clear, this shouldn't be news, but it is.  A man's sexuality shouldn't have a bearing on his draft prospects or the way he is treated within the sport, but the sad reality is that it may well do for Sam.  Sam's footballing skills and talent are undisputed and that should be all that counts. But for possibly the most macho sport in the world, image counts for a great deal.  Some franchises will not want to deal with him at all - they could do without the 'distraction' of one players sexual orientation from the business of football.  For others, it may be seen as an opportunity to raise the profile of the team and franchise.

Sam actually came out to his teammates in August and has played all season with his team knowing his sexual orientation.  No one broke the news because it didn't matter, and his decision to announce it to the wider world has been supported by the reaction from his Missouri State team and coaching staff.

Sam is predicted to go anywhere between the third and fifth rounds of the draft in early May, and the general consensus is that the decision to come out now provides more positives than negatives.

As a ground breaker, he will unfortunately spend an inordinate amount of his time discussing his sexuality over the day to day goings on in football, wherever he may end up. I wish him all the best for his future career.

Dreadful Scots Fall To Latest Low After Calcutta Cup Humbling

by Dugald Skene

Scotland 0-20 England

Dismal. Dour. Dreich.

Not so much the weather at Murrayfield on Saturday, but more a reflection on Scotland's display as they hosted England in the traditionally highly charged Calcutta Cup game.

Scotland were awful.  One dimensional and with a notable lack of enthusiasm for the game and occasion, they were simply overpowered by an England team by no means at their own best standard.

The conditions didn't help either team, but they should in theory have made it a more level playing field, figuratively if not literally.  Scotland couldn't even use that to their advantage.

The statistics from the game are pretty grim. Scotland managed only 42% possession and 34% territory at home. Even in Dublin they managed the majority of possession, despite not being able to capitalise on any of it.

0% kicking success. 82% tackle success (27 missed tackles), 201 metres run with the ball compared to England's 434.  16 penalties conceded compared to England's 7.  England played the game and the conditions to their strengths, electing to maul on 13 occasions with 100% success compared to Scotland's 2 mauls, where they lost 1. It goes on.

Short Calcutta Cup highlights

Sent out with a game plan to kick to the corners and to test the youthful English back three, a lot was riding on Duncan Weir at fly half.  He didn't have a great game as the territory stats clearly indicate, but no one really did. In the wake of the result, Weir is being made a principle scapegoat of those that took to the pitch, unfairly so in my opinion. 

But it's the interim coach Scott Johnson that has been justifiably receiving the lions share of criticism for Scotland's display.  He has been taking heat ever since his bizarre decision to remove captain and all round forward stalwart Kelly Brown from the match day squad, and yet allowing hooker Ross Ford to retain his starting place despite a dire performance in Ireland and a plainly clear inability to perform the two key roles he is on the pitch to do - hooking and throwing.

Scotland's set piece was terrible. If there was any chink of light, it's that the solidity of the scrum was a little better than in Dublin (Scotland didn't lose any of their scrums), but it was the lineout where Scotland suffered so badly once again.  The usually reserved Murrayfield crowd made their discontent with Ford's performance, and likely his selection too, clear with an ironic cheer when he was substituted for Scott Lawson, a substitution that came all too late in the game.

The lineout stats make for the grimmest reading. Scotland won only 7 of their 12 lineouts, while their misguided kicking game and high penalty count provided England with a staggering 24 lineouts, 22 of which they won.  Scotland's defensive lineout is normally a strong point but even here, Jim Hamilton and co were ineffective, and that's when they actually decided to compete.

Scott Johnson's credentials are as an attacking coach which is strangely ironic. The best part of Scotland's game in the last decade has been their defence, a collective resilience that has been hard to break down and has contributed to some unlikely results against the likes of Australia and South Africa in recent years. And yet the attacking element of Scotland's game has been woefully deficient. This isn't solely Johnson's fault, many have tried and failed before him, most recently Gregor Townsend with the backs. However, it's easy to sympathise with the fans that criticise the lack of forward endeavour when the team is being coached by someone who has been brought into the coaching set up to address this exact problem.

Johnson is not a qualified international head coach, though you can see how he managed to talk the high hedions in the SRU round to giving him the interim job. And it is this 'filler' part of the position where you get the distinct feeling he isn't really putting his all into it.

Scott Johnson is not in the Scotland's fans good books

The most damning thing, however, is that I'm not convinced Scott Johnson has the faith in his own players to do the job, no matter what directives they are sent out with.  His rhetoric and spiel in the run up to each game has been 'if we're in it with 20 to go, we'll have a chance'.  This is a negative outlook from the off, no matter how you see it.  It may be argued that he is just being realistic, and I would buy into that, but he shouldn't be the guy sending out these messages. He needs to be the guy that has full confidence in his squad and telling them as much.  You got the distinct feeling with the way the Scots came out to play and the half baked game plan they tried to adopt, that they came out with damage limitation the first priority.

So were there any positives? Well, yes - a couple.

Chris Fusaro's selection seems to have been justified as Scotland managed to win 73 of their 75 rucks, and managed to force England into 14 turnovers, two more than Scotland gave up.  As I mentioned, the scrum held up well against one of the best packs around, but that's about it.

What happens now?  The Scottish rugby media has come out all guns blazing in the wake of the result, and are calling for change. It seems the loudest call is to move Stuart Hogg, the only really effective back in the Scot's line up to fly half.  I cannot agree with this move.

I am a huge fan of Hogg, but he is not a 10 and he is not the future of that position.  He isn't a great kicker under pressure and his pace wouldn't be utilised at first receiver.  While I agree his attacking talents are needed more in the back line, he'd be far more effective at 13. All that said, full back is still his best position and Scotland's game needs to evolve to get him more involved from that deeper role rather than moving him into a position where he can't be at his best.

Duncan Weir needs to be stuck with.  It's excruciating to see Scotland perform like this and to come up so badly short in these contests, but for me, and I've said it repeatedly in the last 6 months, Weir is the future of the 10 shirt. He needs to be given this chance to establish himself.

The benefits of having a genuine openside appear clear, if not from Fusaro's performance then at least from looking at any successful team around the world.

And what of Greig Laidlaw?  He missed his two opportunities at goal, one of which painfully demonstrated his limited range in front of the sticks. Duncan Weir is a sound kicker, and can only improve if given the opportunity. Chris Cusiter is a very able back up at scrum half but at his age, he isn't the future. Henry Pyrgos appears to have been dropped like a bad habit, but I would encourage his return to the fold.

The light at the end of the very long tunnel is that we know Scott Johnson will not be head coach in 6 months time.  The current displays by the Scotland team mean that the arrival of Vern Cotter is putting an unfair weight of expectation on him, which is only getting heavier the more Scotland lose.

I refuse to believe Cotter is not having an influence now on the team selection.  The decision to opt for Duncan Weir as the starting 10 with little international experience with no specialist back up is a clear directive and I believe positive move for the future.  Tell me Cotter hasn't had a say in that decision.

Vern Cotter's contract at Clermont ends this summer

Cotter's immediate problem when he arrives will be to temper the expectations of the fans, a distraction we could all remind ourselves he could do without.  While he has an embarrassment of riches at Clermont Auvergne, a club where he can get more or less who he wants, at Scotland he needs to work with what he's got.  His talents as a man manager and a motivator will be as important as his technical and strategic nouse.

Scotland have a lot of work to do, as do the SRU.  What is becoming increasingly clear is that the performance of the national team, the face of the organisation, is highlighting the deeper problems within the game in this country.  Scotland ha been both slow and disorganised in adapting to professionalism, and the effects are being felt almost 20 years on from the change. I'd urge you to read Bill Lothian and David Ferguson's thoughts on this, over on the Scotsman website.

Scotland have 2 professional teams. One of those, Glasgow Warriors, have 54 players on their books, more than enough to field three teams.  That includes Duncan Weir and Ruaridh Jackson, currently the top 2 stand offs in Scotland.  With this many players on the roster, it is nigh impossible for anyone to get a consistent run at a high level in this country.  Something clearly needs to change.

In the meantime, the national team have a fortnight to prepare for a do or die clash in Rome.  I'll be honest, I don't hold a great deal of hope, but even if Scotland were to win in Italy, nothing changes. Deep rooted problems require fundamental change, and until that happens, Scottish fans may well have to put up with performances like Saturdays for years to come.

Seahawks Destroy The Broncos At Super Bowl XLVIII

by Dugald Skene

As the confetti settles on Super Bowl XLVIII, there is much to mull on following Seattle's 43-8 defensive demolition of the Denver Broncos.

For all the talk in the unprecedented and intoxicating build up to the main event, the game boiled down to the best NFL defence dominating the NFL's best ever offense.

The 35 point difference in the final score line highlights the dominance of one team over the other, but the fact it was over the best offense to ever take the field (by numbers) is a testament to the scale of the achievement by Seattle.

Peyton Manning and his Broncos did not play at their best, but they weren't allowed to.  Manning himself didn't have a terrible game, he threw for 34 completions, more than any other quarterback in a Super Bowl, and for 280 yards. Demaryius Thomas received the ball a Super Bowl record 13 times.  It was the turnovers that killed them and the Broncos offense coughed up the ball 4 times in the game.

The overriding principle for the Seahawks defence is speed. Even for Manning who is the fastest in the NFL at releasing the ball (average of 2.3 seconds from snap to release in 2013), the edge rush and the speed in the back field gave him much smaller windows to complete passes than he had seen all season.

And that defence was backed from the off. After winning the coin toss (conducted by the slightly overdressed Joe Namath!), the Seahawks chose to kick, putting the Broncos offense straight on to the pitch. It was a fantastic and ballsy call.

The game got off to a bad start for Manning, as miscommunication with his centre Ramirez saw the ball fly over his right shoulder and into the end zone where it was claimed by a retreating Bronco but given up for a safety. 12 seconds, 2 points to the Seahawks.  They didn't look back. Every single member of the defensive unit made plays - Chancellor, Sherman, Wagner, Clemons, Wright, Thomas, Smith, Avril, Maxwell - they all had big games.

Manning's mishap saw the fall fly past him as the

Broncos conceded a safety

The Seahawks went into halftime 22-0 up, shutting out Denver offense and restricting them to just 11 yards total. Compare that to the 45 yards garnered by the resurgent Percy Harvin and the overall 161 yards notched up by the Seahawks offence.  Credit needs to go to that unit too.  Under second year QB Russell Wilson, they managed 4/6 3rd down conversions by halftime which was critical to keeping Manning off the field.  Ultimately though, 16 of the 22 points came from defensive plays and the Seahawks were rocking.

You'd have expected the Broncos to take a long hard look at themselves, and I'm sure they did.  The first message would have been not to panic. The second would have been to not concede first in the second half.

The restart kick was deliberately kicked short in an effort to stop Percy Harvin gaining any momentum.  The reality turned out somewhat differently as Harvin gathered the ball after the bounce and set off through a slew of half tackles and ran right through for an 89 yard kick off return TD. As in the first half, the Seahawks scored after 12 seconds, an unintentional but well received tribute to the 12th Man, the resolutely loyal Seahawks fan faithful.

Having only played 40 odd snaps of football all season, Percy Harvin was proving to be the difference maker in the Seahawks offence.

29-0 down, the game was over then if it wasn't before for the Broncos. Never before in Super Bowl history has a team overcome a deficit of more than 10 points. Only twice before in Super Bowls had a team scored more than 22 unanswered points. Both times it was 24 points and both times it was against the Broncos. Harvin's kick return smashed that record too.

The second half saw a more even contest but let's be honest, it couldn't have got worse for the Broncos from there.  The Seahawks continued to make defensive plays but Manning seemed to find more of a groove and tempo, resulting in a TD throw to Wes Welker on the stroke of the 3rd quarter.  For all the turnovers, the Seahawks offense still got their points. There were touchdowns for Lynch, Harvin, Kearse and Baldwin through the course of the game to add to the two defensive TDs.  On the night, the 3rd largest Super Bowl winning margin of 43-8 was fair.

Russell Wilson picked up the Lombardi trophy in his

second season, the 3rd youngest QB ever

Much of the talk before the Super Bowl was what a win or loss would mean for Peyton Manning and his position in the conversation of who is the greatest quarterback in the history of the game.  The fact is he is the greatest regular season quarterback ever. Record breaking numbers, 5 MVP awards - I don't think there's a debate there.  But to be the best, regular season records count for little.  Manning's post season record is below .500.  The Super Bowl loss last night made him 1-2 in Super Bowls and 11-12 in all postseason games.  For me it's simple, he cannot be considered the greatest of all time, but he is in the top 3 or 4.

There are some other sad stories from the Broncos. Veteran cornerback Champ Bailey, all time leading defensive player in Pro Bowl picks and finally in his first Super Bowl, came up short.  Wide receiver Wes Welker notched his third Super Bowl loss in as many attempts, an unenviable record.  I wholeheartedly agree with Peyton Manning who reacted in the post match interview that the Broncos performance was embarrassing.  That is an insulting word, for the effort that goes in can't be discounted.  They were just outplayed on the night.

The Seahawks, none of whom had any Super Bowl experience, played like it. They have played all season with an abandon and combined chip on their shoulder stemming from a lack of recognition from around the league, attention that has only really focussed on them through this season. 

Coach Pete Carroll, once denounced from the NFL for being 'too friendly' with his players when he was on the coaching set up at the Jets in the 1990's has come back via a stunning college football run to lead this young team to glory.  He will feel a certain sense of redemption, I'm sure.

I'm delighted for the Seahawks.  It's a combination of youth and enthusiasm with a balance and dedication that has seen them triumph.  They seem to live by the mantra of work hard, play hard.  Last night, they definitely did that.

Scotland's Team Selection Is A Vote Of No Confidence For Jackson

by Dugald Skene

Scott Johnson has once again proved his ability to baffle, or at least defy expectations.  Scotland's interim head coach has picked his 23 man squad for the upcoming opening game of the 6 Nations in Dublin and has left some notable names either on the bench, or out of the squad completely.

The immediate headlines in the wake of the announcement appear to centre around the international return of full back Stuart Hogg.  Absent for the November tests, his inclusion now is hardly a surprise. When fit, he can now be considered a shoo-in for a starting berth.  Perhaps more significant is the start that has been given to Duncan Weir at fly half and consequently, the omission of Ruaridh Jackson from the match day squad altogether.

I have to say I'm delighted with this particular selection. I won't go over it all again, but I saw this tournament as the last chance for Ruaridh Jackson to stake his claim as the consistent starting 10 for Scotland in the lead up to next year's World Cup.  I have also seen Weir as the long term fixture in the position, so to see Johnson plump for him from the outset is great news.

Duncan Weir starts for Scotland with Ruaridh Jackson

out of the match day squad

It is a risky strategy though, as the back up for Weir is his half back partner Greig Laidlaw. With both starting, Johnson is clearly expecting one or the other to see out 80 minutes, most likely Laidlaw.  With only Chris Cusiter on the bench who can cover at 9, Stuart Hogg is the only man with experience, albeit limited experience, at the fly half position at anything like this level.

Scotland do have flexibility in the backs. Sean Lamont can, although shouldn't, play in the centre and Maitland can cover across the back three if pieces need moved around.  The back line generally has a sense of defensive solidity about it, perhaps purveying a negative approach to the game.  But like fielding a defensive line up in football when playing away from home, Johnson can't be blamed for taking this tack.  Scotland will be looking to smash and grab when they can but will fully expect to spend the majority of their time keeping the Irish out.

This all makes Hogg's inclusion more important, and shifts a fair amount of responsibility to spark some attacking backs play on to his shoulders.  He is perhaps the only Scottish back that has the ability to make something out of nothing, and can do it from deep as he has proved so many times before.

I like the inclusion of Alex Dunbar, but regret he isn't getting to start with Matt Scott, the centre combination I see as the future for Scotland and which played so well last summer in South Africa. Duncan Taylor had a torrid Autumn for Scotland but will hopefully look to reverse that form and play to the potential he has shown at Saracens.  There's no doubt he'll see more of the ball playing outside Weir rather than Jackson.

The forward pack selection has also thrown up some surprises, not so much about who's in, but who's out. Richie Gray, Geoff Cross and Johnnie Beattie are all on the bench.  While Scotland fans will see less of the talismanic Gray than they did a couple of seasons ago now he plies his trade at Castres, they will have fond memories of his runaway try against the Irish in 2012 and will have wanted to see him start again.  That said, the strength at second row is particularly deep at the moment, and Hamilton and Swinson provide plenty of power in the heart of the scrum.

Ryan Wilson has been selected at 6 and David Denton at 8, ahead of Beattie. Captain Kelly Brown continues at 7, a position to which he is not naturally attuned. Beattie is the only specialist back row cover on the bench.

In the front row Ryan Grant naturally starts, with the out of form Ross Ford getting the nod at hooker, a position he still hasn't adjusted to since the scrum law changes. He needs a big game, as does Moray Low, who has never got it all together for Scotland. Up against Cian Healy, he'll have it all to do.

The Irish are up there with the favourites to win the tournament this year, despite needing to travel to Twickenham and the Stade de France, but with two home games up first, they'll be keen to get off to a flier.  The Australians really rocked their scrum back in November and that will be an area Scotland will target if the front row can click.

It's going to be a hell of a test for the Scots, but a repeat of 2010 isn't out of the question, and if they can reduce the game to a slug fest and stop the Irish from scoring early, like last year, Scotland can compete with anyone.

Scotland team to face Ireland:

15 Stuart Hogg
14 Sean Maitland
13 Alex Dunbar
12 Duncan Taylor
11 Sean Lamont
10 Duncan Weir
9 Greig Laidlaw

1 Ryan Grant
2 Ross Ford
3 Moray Low
4 Tim Swinson
5 Jim Hamilton
6 Ryan Wilson
7 Kelly Brown (c)
8 David Denton

Substitutes:
16 Pat MacArthur
17 Alasdair Dickinson
18 Geoff Cross
19 Richie Gray
20 Johnnie Beattie
21 Chris Cusiter
22 Matt Scott
23 Max Evans

The 2014 Six Nations Is, On Paper, Wide Open

by Dugald Skene

Here we go again.

The 2014 6 nations seems to promise the usual thrills and spills, but there is a decided air of uncertainty going around as to who will take the championship crown.  The English are well backed, and the Irish and French also have good support following the success of the provincial and top 14 teams in this year's Heineken Cup.

Unfortunately as a Scotland fan, there isn't much promise beyond the usual expectations, but being an 'even' year, Scotland do host the English and French at Murrayfield and on their day, have the ability to throw a spanner in the works.

It seems almost clichéd to say that the Italians are an ever-improving force, and there's no doubt they will be eyeing the fifth placed spot at the very least, especially as they host Scotland in week 4 and have always played strongly against England in Rome in recent years.

Wales are perhaps the biggest unknown, simply down to who is fit and who isn't. Captain Sam Warburton has already been announced as being a substitute for the opening salvo against Italy at the Millennium, and Warren Gatland will have a few holes to fill elsewhere.  With 3 games at home though, they can't be discounted as they look to claim their third championship on the spin.

In most respects, predictions are somewhat pointless and generally founded on the form of individual players rather than the teams.  The last time each nation played was in November, and while not that long ago, autumn test form is rarely a barometer for 6 Nations success - just look at France last year.

Can Wales make it 3 in a row?

That said, the final table is something to muse, so why not?

First off, I don't believe there will be a grand slam winner this year.  The fixtures are such that everybody has tough away days that some will win and some won't.  I see Wales losing at Twickenham, but Ireland triumphing.  On the reverse, I can see Wales winning in France where they have a wonderful record but France beating Ireland in what could well be a championship decider on March 15th in Paris.

Scotland have always been good value in Wales, most notably in 2010 where they suffered a heart aching self destruction to lose in the final seconds.  Is 2014 there year to win in Cardiff?  The English in turn have only won once at Murrayfield since 2004.  Scotland always raise their game for the arrival of the English.

So no, there won't be a grand slam this year - that is probably my most confident prediction.  The winner however, is between France, Ireland and England.  While Ireland have an opportunity to get a strong start under their belts with 2 home games against Scotland and Wales, the French host the English in week once in a game that could define the rest of the tournament.  England played so well in France 2 years ago to win, but I don't see that bit of history repeating itself this year.  The French clubs have played so well in European competition so far this year, and the French contingents of each seem to be gaining form as their clubs do.

For me, I think the French will win the tournament.  There is no lack of talent and ability to run away with the 6 Nations on an annual basis for France, it always seems to come down to attitude and team selection.  The former should be sharpened following last year's awful showing, so it's down to the combinations that take to the field.

Ireland will come second this year.  The fixtures suit them with 2 home games up first and a trip to Twickenham with 2 weeks break either side in the middle, a game I fancy them for.  Ireland will go to Paris on Super Saturday looking for a Grand Slam but will come up short, and France will sneak off with the trophy from under their noses.

With predicted losses to the French and Irish, I see the English winning their other fixtures.  Scotland away and Wales at home will be tough affairs, and I admit I would dearly love to see them lose both, but I think they are starting to come good, achieving a consistency in both form and selection under Lancaster now that spells out a clear focus on 2015.

My heart says Scotland will win in both Italy and Wales, two games where they will be undoubted underdogs. They will finish fourth.  My head fears for the worst.

Wales will come in fifth and Italy will round off the group, but I have to stress not because they are perceived as the whipping boys anymore (not that a Scotland fan could ever claim they were).

It's going to be a fascinating tournament, and for once I think all the hyperbole from the head coaches ahead of the opening weekend may well ring true. While none of them are bigging up their own team, at least 4 of them will be confident of going home with the crown.  For that reason alone, all of them will fall short of the grand slam.

Scotland's 2014 6 Nations Squad Does Little To Address Problem At Half Backs

by Dugald Skene

The 36 man Scotland training squad named on Wednesday for the upcoming 6 Nations tournament didn't throw up many, if any surprises.  In the wake of the announcement, some familiar comments were banding around the social networks, some that have been aired many times before but nevertheless still haven't been answered - like why Chris Fusaro is still not capped by his country?

Congratulations to Dougie Fife too, who was named in the squad as the only new boy.

For all the familiarity of the selection, the deficiencies at half back are still as glaringly obvious as ever.  Only two scrum halves - Greig Laidlaw and Chris Cusiter - have been selected and Scott Johnson appears to be once again plumping for Ruaridh Jackson at 10, with Duncan Weir his back up option.

The latter stuns me.  While there has no doubt been a marked improvement in Jackson's all round play under the tutelage of past master Gregor Townsend since his takeover of the Glasgow head coach job, Ruaridh is not an international stand off.  It's not for lack of trying and it's certainly not because he hasn't been afforded the opportunity, he has simply failed to take it and run with it.

Of course this is open to argument, but I would encourage anyone to try and think of any Ruaridh Jackson related highlights for Scotland in the past 5 years or so.  I certainly struggle.

Ruaridh Jackson is under pressure to perform

What's more, I believe there is better talent behind him ready to be exposed at a consistent level.  First in line is Duncan Weir.  Small in stature and a little weak in defence, he has far me far more awareness of the game around him and is infinitely better at making those split second decisions.  A classic example would be when he came on for Jackson in that dismal performance against South Africa last November. Almost instantly, he was shipping the ball to the man on his outside shoulder and wasn't trying audacious miss passes at every opportunity.

His kicking from hand is accurate, and possibly his best weapon. Even better, he knows when it's on and when it isn't. His threaded through kick against South Africa was inch perfect and should have led to Tommy Seymour crossing the line was it not for some last ditch covering. It was Scotland's only real chance of the game and came from a clear awareness of what was in front of him and a well executed kick under pressure from a strong South African defensive line.

The issues over his size and strength are real ones, but it wasn't that long ago that Leigh Halfpenny was considered quite weak defensively. We all know how that turned out.

Second in line is probably Tom Heathcote, who I admit up front I don't know a huge amount about.  What I have seen of him from the quadrangular tournament in South Africa last summer and a few games here and there, he has the clear potential to establish himself as a very different option to Weir. Being based in England, he has had little opportunity to familiarise himself with the Scottish crowds, and vice versa, and so some exposure now would have been beneficial, I would have thought.

Time is running out. With a  little over 18 months until the World Cup, Scotland need to have an established figure at 10 that can direct the game, and even be a game changer. Not since Townsend have we had any real creativity at that position, it's all been a bit one dimensional. That's not to say a non-creative player can't succeed - I wouldn't put Craig Chalmers in the bracket of 'flair player' - but at least Chalmers was solid, consistent and knew how to read the game and adapt accordingly.

With the likely crucial showdown with Samoa set to dictate whether Scotland progress from the group to the quarter finals, experience at key positions is going to be required.

In short, this 6 Nations tournament is the last chance for Ruaridh Jackson. I'd give him two games to prove that he can step up and perform for Scotland at the highest level, including at Murrayfield against the English, who we have only lost to once since 2004 on Scottish turf.

So what about scrum half?

Firstly, I'm surprised Henry Pyrgos hasn't been included in the squad.  With only 2 specialist scrum halves, we are not giving ourselves many options.  As much as I like him and he has been my preferred number 9 of the last decade or so, Chris Cusiter is on his way out at international level.  In many respects, he has been unlucky in the past with injuries and a particularly strong competition for places whilst Mike Blair and Rory Lawson were both vying for top spot. 

That said, unless there is a clear intention for Cusiter to be at the next World Cup as one of the top two scrum half options, he shouldn't be picked over the younger emerging talents of the likes of Pyrgos.

I'm no betting man, but provided he stays fit, Greig Laidlaw will be the first name on the World Cup team sheet - of that I have no doubt - and I would be happy with that.  He has been reasonably consistent and he knows how to rally his forwards. A strong voice for a wee man and a key leader for a team that lacks a lot of leadership, especially in the backs.

If the Scottish fans are honest with themselves (and I am a hopeless optimist at this time every year), Scotland don't have a realistic shot at the 6 nations title.  It may be a slightly controversial opinion, but I would happily see the Scottish coaching staff approach this year's tournament with an air of experimentation, fully aware that the price may be a wooden spoon.  I believe the potential long term benefits may well be worth it.  I'm not suggesting we don't compete, because any Scottish player would give their all, no matter who was on the pitch. I just think it might be the right time to take some risks.

Scott Johnson's selection is notably risk averse, and this saddens me somewhat.


Scotland's 36 man training camp squad for the 6 Nations 2014:

Forwards: John Beattie (Montpellier), Kelly Brown (Saracens), Geoff Cross, David Denton, Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford (all Edinburgh Rugby), Chris Fusaro (Glasgow Warriors), Grant Gilchrist (Edinburgh Rugby), Ryan Grant, Jonny Gray (both Glasgow Warriors), Richie Gray (Castres), Jim Hamilton (Montpellier), Robert Harley (Glasgow Warriors), Scott Lawson (Newcastle Falcons), Kieran Low (London Irish), Moray Low, Pat MacArthur (both Glasgow Warriors), Ross Rennie (Edinburgh Rugby) Alasdair Strokosch (Perpignan), Tim Swinson and Ryan Wilson (both Glasgow Warriors).

Backs: Chris Cusiter (Glasgow Warriors), Nick De Luca (Edinburgh Rugby), Alex Dunbar (Glasgow Warriors), Max Evans (Castres), Dougie Fife (Edinburgh Rugby), Stuart Hogg, Ruaridh Jackson, Sean Lamont (all Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Edinburgh Rugby), Sean Maitland (Glasgow Warriors), Matt Scott (Edinburgh Rugby), Tommy Seymour (Glasgow Warriors), Duncan Taylor (Saracens), Greig Tonks (Edinburgh Rugby) and Duncan Weir (Glasgow Warriors).

Not considered due to injury: Alastair Kellock (Glasgow Warriors), Euan Murray (Worcester Warriors), Peter Horne (Glasgow Warriors) and Tim Visser (Edinburgh Rugby).

Notable names left out: John Barclay (Scarlets), Jack Cuthbert, Roddy Grant (Edinburgh), Dougie Hall, Henry Pyrgos, Jon Welsh (Glasgow)

NFL Conference Finals Are The Deserved Match Ups

by Dugald Skene

Never mind that the NFL conference final line ups are the ones we wanted to see, they are the match ups that all four teams deserve.

It's been many a year since the top 2 seeds from each conference have made it to their respective finals in the same year. Lately, there has always been an outsider, a wildcard team that has got hot in the post season.  Look no further than the Giants and the Ravens in the last two years as prime examples, both getting in through the back door to claim the Superbowl crown.

The divisional round didn't throw up any real surprises, and nothing like the exciting action of wildcard weekend (unless you're a fan of dominant defences slugging it out), but the cream has risen to the top, and the two match ups this weekend are generating many a headline.

The most obvious one is the difference in styles - the old versus the new, the young guns of the NFC taking on the stalwarts of the AFC.  The immediate advantage is that we will end up with a representative of each in the Superbowl and it doesn't really matter at this stage who progresses to the biggest stage - any combination of Seattle and the 49ers against the Broncos or Patriots is a mouth watering prospect.

With such even matched games, it's anyone's guess who will be in New York in February, but it won't stop me trying.

San Francisco at Seattle has everything - dominant defences, strong running games and two young quarterbacks that have the ability to carry their team when needed.

Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers has undoubtedly got the best arsenal at his disposal.  The triumphant return of Michael Crabtree at WR, together with veteran Anquan Boldin and TE Vernon Davis, means the 49ers have all their strongest options available to them.  The outstanding Seahawks secondary will have their hands full, but if there's any defence that can contain the 49ers wide men, it's the likes of Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and co.  Each had an outstanding game against the Saints this past weekend, confining Drew Brees to a career low 34 throwing yards in the first half of that game.  More of the same will be needed this time.

This will be the 3rd time the 49ers and Seahawks have

met this season

The Kaepernick/Wilson battle is generating a lot of intrigue.  There's no doubt that Kaepernick has go hotter as this postseason has gone on, not least because of the return to fitness of Crabtree, and Wilson's form during the last 5-6 weeks hasn't been great.  Wilson's options are also limited.  Percy Harvin is a doubt after being concussed at least once by the Saints (a great and legal hit too, by the way), and Golden Tate was a shell of himself after taking an early hit in the 1st quarter on Sunday.  Doug Baldwin isn't a first choice WR and so much of Seattle's game plan will be to run the ball through Marshawn Lynch - Beast Mode. 

I'm not convinced a one-dimensional running game is going to cut it against that front 7 of San Francisco who have been epic against the run of late.  Even with the 12th man behind them, Seattle could struggle in this one.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers by 6

If I'm truly honest about it, I don't care so much about the AFC conference game.  It's certainly one for the old timers, the fans of the pocket passer and the old school general type quarterback.  Both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have been here before - Manning going for his 3rd Superbowl appearance (and second win), Brady his 6th (and 4th win). 

Both men are under pressure for different reasons.  Talk in the NFL has been dominated by the idea of legacy and what it means for Manning to win or not win a second ring. There is no doubt he has been one of the best regular season QB's in the history of the game, but the regular season wins you nothing. His postseason record is poor  for a guy with his numbers.  Taking nothing away from his win with the Colts, with the Broncos he has the back up that might see him fulfil the undoubted potential of the last decade.  With WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and TE Julius Thomas, he has big men to throw at, as well as the small man with the big game aptitude, slot receiver Wes Welker.

This will be the 4th postseason game between Brady & Manning

 - Brady leads 2-1

Brady, on the other hand, hasn't won a Superbowl for 9 years, despite making it to the big one twice since the win in 2004.  A win this year could possible cement him as the best ever - the third quarterback to win 4 rings but easily the most consistent over the longest period.  This will be the Patriots' 3rd consecutive AFC conference game, and Brady and coach Belichik have won 11 divisional titles together

I see the Patriots going to Denver and playing hard ball.  If this past weekend has shown us anything, it's that the Patriots can evolve quickly, and lately their running game has come to the fore with LeGarette Blount - 8 TD's and almost 400 yards in his past 3 games. 

For Denver to win this, they need to get off to a strong start.  The longer the game goes on and Denver find themselves in a position where they need to make big offensive plays to win, the pressure might get just too much, and the Mile High crowd might not help their team as much as we might think.  When it comes to the clutch, I'd rather have Brady than Manning on my side.  That said, if the Broncos defence plays like they did for 3 quarters against the Chargers on Sunday, they're in with a very good start.

Pick:  Denver Broncos by 3